Erin is forecast to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2025. The Carolinas may be at risk if the storm veers west next week. Learn which parts of the East Coast could be affected.

Meteorologists report that hurricane Erin has strengthened and is tracking northwest over warm waters, creating favorable conditions for further development. While historical data shows most storms in Erin's current location do not make landfall along the U.S. east coast, the Carolinas, especially North Carolina, remain under close watch due to the storm's uncertain path.

Forecast models indicate a high likelihood that jet stream winds will steer Erin away from the coast, reducing the risk of direct impacts such as wind and rain. However, experts caution that the storm's exact trajectory is not yet certain, and a 30 percent chance of direct impacts remains for the North Carolina coastline, particularly the Outer Banks. Monitoring will continue as the situation develops.

Carolinas at potential risk if Erin continues to track farther west

John Aaron really started the ramp up about 24 hours ago and at five o'clock last night Maximus Dane was at 70 miles per hour but then dry air came in and that kind of stopped the development. It couldn't deny it but it just delayed it. Yeah it just delayed it a bit that's right and and really I think overnight part of that time period was used by the storm to sort of restructure itself. Now it looks like it has a better inner core. The satellite presentation is improving. Notice the movement down though now Bernie. Last couple of days it's been west at about 20 miles an hour west northwest now so a little bit more that northwesterly component involved. Now John I want to go back to this graphic because I think it's important we continue to look at this every single day that it's important to note as that northwest track continues that Aaron's going to go over favorable conditions for development. Low winter which is what this graphic is showing us. Very warm water and less dry air so there's no question this will be a major hurricane. Yes major hurricane on the way and that's why we have a high degree of confidence about that. All right now let's go back to this graphic John because it's a starting point for us because we want to talk about probability. So this was the track this morning right and all of the tracks near Aaron within 60 miles in August and September and this is what's helping us or at least the starting point to determine who's clear and who's not. History says no one's clear along the east coast and John if you track the storms just in the Atlantic because that's where we think it's going 59 storms eight have had direct impacts so that's roughly about 15 percent. That's correct and some of those in each of these lines by the way is a storm a previous storm in August or September. It's the historical record for storms that were near Aaron's current location. Notice a few of them do get back to Florida and the Carolinas that's why we continue to have the entire east coast on alert for this storm. Can't all clear anyone yet. One of the rules meteorologists have come up with over the years it's called the her bay the her her bay box here. It's the 2060 line you've heard me notice talk about this before. What this says is any storm that goes off to the south of that point it's very unlikely if it goes north of that point excuse me north of 2060 it's very unlikely that you would get a landfall in south Florida. That's right and this is one of these tricks a long time tools developed by a former national hurricane center meteorologist decades ago before computer models and technology that we have guidance that we have was as sophisticated as it is today but it's still a good thing to keep in mind that when storms go north of that 2060 waypoint that's when we become a lot less concerned about Florida but near or south of it that's why that's why the concern remains so once it traverses that point we're going to have a lot more confidence about that turn to the north. All right the fork in the road John there's always a fork in the road you've heard me say this all the time fork in the road continues to be that Sunday and Monday time frame it all depends on how quickly Aaron does or does not turn to the north. That degree to the turn to the north the timing of it's going to be very critical Sunday afternoon because if it turns to the north fairly rapidly and decisively that's going to greatly reduce risks in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia but we'll still be having to watch for risks in North Carolina. If it stays that southern track that means the total opposite right that the threats do increase and when you look at the at now Wednesday this is the other thing John this is why we're we're reasonably confident that no matter you get the northern track or the southern track come Wednesday that dip in the jet stream should still steer Aaron away from the east coast. Right we think that the jet stream winds they're going to act as a as a kicker and kick the storm off to the east reducing the risk for direct wind and impacts so wind and rain impacts along the U.S. east coast. All right and you'll notice what you see that time frame Sunday Monday you see how the the path diverges as far east as Bermuda and as far west as the Bahamas and all the way near the outer banks of North Carolina. That's right that's why we've still got the western edge of that AccuWeather window of movement indicating the storm could be as far west as near the North Carolina coast in the middle of the week next week around Wednesday and that's why we're still monitoring that and concerned about the angle by which it does that recurve back out to sea. You take a look at history you take a look at the meteorology and our sense of this that's why we still have a 30 percent chance of direct impacts or a 70 percent direct a chance of no direct impacts. History is actually higher about 85 percent that there would be no wind and rain along the east coast. That's right and that is why we're reasonably confident here that the there would be a limited risk along the east coast but the places to watch especially the outer banks the North Carolina coastline that's where that 30 percent on the lower end of that medium risk is maximized in terms of the risk with this storm. All right thanks for joining me AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter thanks for breaking it down it is going to be a busy busy weekend and busy next week.

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