Name: Will the Syria ceasefire survive? Key risks explained: analysis
Uploaded: 2026-01-19T17:34:57.337Z
Duration: 5 min 51 s
Description: Ceasefire between Syrian Army & SDF is fragile as clashes persist, ISIL prisons shift to Damascus & unclear plans for Kurds risk instability

Ceasefire between Syrian Army & SDF is fragile as clashes persist, ISIL prisons shift to Damascus & unclear plans for Kurds risk instability

Damascus

A ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has been signed, aiming to integrate SDF fighters into the Syrian army and transfer control of oil fields and prisons to the government. However, reports indicate ongoing clashes near Tishrin Dam and a prison holding ISIL fighters, raising concerns about the stability of the truce.

Syrian political analyst Labib Nahas highlighted several unresolved challenges, such as the risk of prison breaks, the status of Kurdish-majority areas, and the handling of foreign fighters. The agreement requires the expulsion of PKK-linked operatives from the SDF, but divisions within the group and unclear administrative arrangements pose significant obstacles to lasting peace.

Will the Syria ceasefire survive? Key risks explained: analysis

Despite a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led SDF, there are still reports of fighting near Tishrin Dam east of Aleppo and near a prison holding ISIL fighters near Raqqa. It follows the army's attempts to consolidate its presence in the northeast of the country. Earlier, soldiers moved into the area around the dam with bomb disposal teams removing explosive devices. Really, they're planted by the SDF. Elsewhere, people gathered to celebrate. The city of Raqqa had been under SDF control for nearly a decade after it was retaken from ISIL fighters back in 2017. The latest developments follow the signing of a ceasefire agreement by Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara. The deal makes provision for the Kurdish-led SDF to be integrated into the army. A ceasefire comes into effect on all fronts, halting the Syrian army's advance. It will see the integration of tens of thousands of SDF fighters into the army. The government in Damascus will take control of all oil and gas fields which were previously in the hands of the SDF. The government will also take over the prisons in the northeast where tens of thousands of ISIL fighters are detained. Joining us from London is Labib Nahas. He is a Syrian political analyst. But there is a danger, isn't there, Labib, that this fighting escalates to the point where there's a prison break, which would maybe involve a lot of ISIL fighters escaping and going on a rampage, and that's a fear. Well, that was one of the leverage cards, let's say, that SDF has been holding since the beginning, you know. And the only way that this could happen if there's a lack of coordination, or if the ceasefire doesn't hold, or if the meeting that is being held right now between Shara'a and Mazloum Abdi in Damascus will not yield in very specific results and clarifications of the vagueness that the agreement holds within itself. So the report that we're getting, and I think there has been a statement from SDF in the last few minutes saying that the prison in Shaddadi is out of their control and that the U.S. have not intervened or helped in holding to that prison. And at the same time, the Syrian state media has been reporting that SDF have already released purposely some ISIS prisoners. So again, I think we need an urgent and quick control of the situation. And the meeting that is being held in Damascus right now has to put certain clarifications on the agreement. Labib, there are a lot of unanswered questions here, aren't there, such as how this security vetting would take place, what the status of Kurds would be, even though they've come out and said that they'd become citizens, etc., and indeed how certain Kurdish parts or majority parts of Syria will be governed. Yes, I think those are, I mean, the two major challenges, along with the issue of the future of SDF and the fate of SDF, whether it's going to continue to exist or not after the merger. And in terms of merging SDF military forces into the Syrian state, I think the Syrian state has achieved a very big milestone in terms of forcing SDF to accept that the integration will be as individuals. But yet, as you mentioned, the security vetting is going to be a huge challenge, because we're talking about 50 to 70 or 80,000 soldiers. So this is a massive, if when I look at it from a security point of view, kind of infiltration into the new state military force. On the administrative part, I think the biggest challenge really is in al-Hasakah, because it's the only geographic location where there is a Kurdish majority in terms of demography. So how the model will be implemented, and will SDF autonomous administration workers will be taking care of the city and just changing the label, basically, from SDF or the autonomous authority administration, sorry, to Syrian state, that's yet to be seen, you know. Yeah, and Labib, you know, there are a lot of foreign fighters amongst the SDF and other groupings there as well. How are they going to be dealt with? Again, this is also something that the agreement has not detailed. There is one mentioning in the agreement, though, that SDF has to expel any PKK linked or affiliated individuals or operatives. This is also going to be a challenge within SDF itself, because even before the big advances that the Syrian authorities made in the last 48 hours, there was already some division within the leadership of SDF itself. So we might expect some of the more radical elements in SDF to refuse that part. So, again, there are some challenges within SDF itself to fulfill that part, and then there are challenges between the Syrian state and SDF to see how the vetting and the issue of foreign fighters, not only within SDF, but also the fate of the foreign fighters within the ISIS prisons themselves, what's going to happen with them. Labib, very quickly, what is your gut feeling about this? Is this ceasefire, in your view, going to hold in a meaningful way? I think it's going to hold, not in a perfect way, by no means. But we have to keep in mind that SDF has lost most of their leverage, the oil, gas fields, the dams, the territorial control, and now they're losing also ISIS prisons. So SDF is going to find itself forced to accept some sort of deal at the end. Now, the details we don't know, but it's clear to me, I think, that they're not in a position anymore to lash a full kind of scale confrontation with the authorities. Labib Nahas there, joining us from London. He's a Syrian political analyst.

Experts studying the cause of the derailment of a high-speed train in Spain - which killed dozens of people - found a broken joint on the rails, according to a source with knowledge of the investigation.

Adamuz

Source: broken joint found on track at Spanish rail crash site

Prince Harry is back in a London court, along with a slew of other high-profile figures, fighting the publisher of the Daily Mail over invasion of privacy and illegal information gathering tactics.

London

Prince Harry back in London court fighting British tabloids

Billionaire wealth surged at three times ‍its recent pace ​last year to reach its highest level on record, deepening economic and political divides that threaten democratic ⁠stability, anti-poverty group Oxfam said.

World billionaire wealth hits new peak amid rising poverty, Oxfam says

A high-speed train collision that caused a derailment in southern Spain has killed at least 39 people, officials say. Investigators are working to determine the cause of the crash.

High-speed train crash in Spain kills dozens

Prime Minister Mark Carney is considering sending Canadian Forces personnel to Greenland for military exercises with NATO allies in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats on European nations who block his efforts to acquire the island, two senior Canadian officials told CBC News.

Ottawa

Carney considering sending troops to Greenland for NATO exercises

The deal followed hours after the Syrian army seized oil and gas fields and two major northeastern towns in clashes with the SDF. Fighting earlier this month has displaced tens of thousands.

Aleppo

Syrian government agrees to ceasefire with Kurdish-led SDF

European countries held an emergency meeting in Brussels Sunday in response to President Trump's post threatening tariffs against countries that have sent military forces into Greenland amid his push to annex the Arctic island.

Brussels

European leaders denounce Trump's tariff threat over Greenland

After 25 years of talks, the EU signed the EU-Mercosur trade deal on Saturday, creating a 700 million-person free-trade area. Ratification is still pending, however, with the European Parliament set for a heated debate.

Asunción

EU seals contentious trade deal with Mercosur countries

European governments blasted U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that eight countries will face 10% tariff for opposing American control of Greenland beginning next month.

Nuuk

Greenland Stand-Off

European governments condemn Trump's tariff threats over Greenland

Palestinians in Gaza expressed both concern and hope after the White House announced some members of a so-called "Board of Peace" that will supervise the temporary governance of the war-torn enclave, which has been under a fragile ceasefire since October.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Gazans wary as U.S. names 'Board of Peace' under Trump's plan

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on eight European countries until they allow the U.S. to buy the autonomous Danish territory.

Trump escalates pressure on Europe over Greenland control

Protesters who support the surge of federal immigration officers in Minneapolis have clashed with counter-protesters, while state officials announced that the Minnesota National Guard had been mobilized. Adding to the mayhem was the freezing January weather.

Minneapolis

Pro and anti-ICE protesters clash in Minneapolis

Iran's supreme leader blamed the U.S. for the protests against his regime that resulted in a violent crackdown. Willie James Inman has President Trump's response.

Tehran

Iran blames U.S. for protests, Trump punches back

President Trump announced that he would institute 10% tariffs on eight European countries who oppose his plan to put Greenland under U.S. control. The announcement came after a bipartisan group of congressional lawmakers flew to Denmark to express support for keeping Greenland under Danish control.

Trump announces new tariffs on European countries who backed Greenland

Large crowds of demonstrators marched through Copenhagen and other Danish cities on Saturday in support of Greenland's sovereignty amid tensions with the US.

Copenhagen

Thousands take part in 'Hands off Greenland' protests in Denmark

The United States will impose increasing tariffs on several European countries until the U.S. is able to purchase Greenland, President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social. Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face the tariff.

Global Tariffs

Trump threatens tariffs against European nations over Greenland support

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni won his seventh term with 71.65% of votes, according to official results Saturday, defeating the youthful challenger who campaigned for change after four decades of the same government.

Kampala

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni wins seventh term

There will be no territorial concessions in Ukraine, the Ukrainian president said, answering Euronews' question on whether Kyiv is now being pressured into territorial concessions.

Ukraine Invasion

Ukraine will not cede any of its territory, Zelenskyy says

The United States on Thursday said Iran halted 800 executions of protesters under pressure from President Donald Trump, after Gulf allies appeared to pull him back from military action over Tehran's deadly crackdown on demonstrations.

U.S. claims Iran halts executions of protesters amid crackdown

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump on Thursday at the White House. She presented Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize medal, which was seen as a peace offering to win his support.

Washington

Venezuela Strikes

Venezuelan opposition leader presents Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize

A U.S. Senate delegation is meeting with Danish officials on Friday to defuse the standoff between President Donald Trump and Denmark over Greenland. Denmark sent soldiers to Greenland and they will be joined by military units from various NATO allies.

NATO troops head to Greenland amid Trump's threats

NASA says it could be just weeks away from launching astronauts on a flight around the moon for the first time in more than half a century. Final preparations are underway at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where the Artemis II moon rocket is expected to roll out to the launch pad on Saturday.

Cape Canaveral

Final preparations for Artemis II launch underway

A South Korean court on Friday (January 16) sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison on charges that included obstructing attempts by authorities to arrest him following his failed bid to impose martial law in December 2024.

Seoul

Five years' jail for South Korea's Yoon in first martial law penalty

US President Donald Trump is threatening to use military force against Americans after clashes between protestors and law enforcement in Minneapolis. The city has been on edge since the fatal shooting of a protester, Renee Good, by an ICE officer.

Trump threatens to use military against Minneapolis protests

The U.S. and Taiwan clinched a trade deal that cuts tariffs on many of the semiconductor powerhouse's exports, directs new investments in the U.S. technology industry and risks infuriating China.

U.S., Taiwan strike deal on tech tariffs risking China's ire

The United Nations Security Council has held an emergency meeting to discuss the deadly anti-establishment protests in Iran at the request of the United States. President Donald Trump has refused to rule out military action on Iran over the killing of protesters. Tehran has vowed to retaliate if that happens.

Iran, U.S. clash at UN over protests as calls grow for restraint

Tensions are soaring in Minneapolis as protesters face off against federal agents. As Matt Gutman reports, it comes after a Venezuelan migrant was shot by an ICE agent after allegedly trying to flee federal officers.

Tensions flare in Minneapolis after second shooting by ICE agent

Ali Shaath, the Palestinian former government official chosen to administer Gaza under a U.S.-backed deal, has an ambitious plan that includes pushing war debris into the Mediterranean Sea and rebuilding destroyed infrastructure within three years.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

U.S. backs Palestinian civil engineer to administer Gaza

The U.S. has announced the launch of the second phase of President
Donald Trump's peace plan in the Gaza Strip, which will involve moving from a ceasefire to demilitarization.

Gaza deal's second phase to begin

CBS News met with fighters from an armed and outlawed Iranian opposition group in the mountains of northern Iraq who said the protests in Iran have given them hope. They believe the regime can be toppled "if the people who are demonstrating on the street get international help."

Breakdown