Name: Why CPUs are the new GPUs: Price on the next phase of the AI trade
Uploaded: 2026-01-19T08:10:55.399Z
Duration: 2 min 56 s
Description: Rahul Ghosh of T. Rowe Price also weighs in on this year’s energy trade, calling it a “wildcard” with countervailing forces clouding the outlook.

Rahul Ghosh of T. Rowe Price also weighs in on this year’s energy trade, calling it a “wildcard” with countervailing forces clouding the outlook.

New York

Industry analysts predict that the next phase of the AI trade will see a shift in component shortages, with CPUs and commodity memory expected to become the primary bottlenecks in 2026. This follows a period where GPUs and advanced memory were in short supply, and reflects ongoing high demand for AI computing power.

In addition to hardware trends, the energy sector is highlighted as a potential wild card, with current low prices and supply exceeding demand. However, reduced reinvestment could set the stage for future shortages and price adjustments, particularly as AI-related energy consumption grows.

Why CPUs are the new GPUs: Price on the next phase of the AI trade

Yeah, and Rahul, why do you say energy could be a wild card apart from a Venezuela apart from Greenland obviously? to Narratives that that could actually provide a lot of uncertainty But we don't just we don't have a lot of answers to but how much of this it can actually come from The simple story of a power crunch given the demand for AI computing in 2026 Well, I'd say some of that comes from that But largely the power crunch from AI demand is probably slightly separate Because when you think about where a lot of that power is going to be supplied in the u.s It's probably going to be in risk from gas turbines, etc. So that is slightly different from the global energy story I think in terms of energy being a wild card, you know 26 into 27 It's really linked around the fact that number one as a asset The price has come down fairly significantly Which then means that the reinvestment that goes into that industry typically is setting up a longer-term shortage into what goes on The second thing is right now when you look at the rest of the commodity complex Whether it's precious metals that obviously have moved up in response to uncertainty When you look at other commodities like copper, etc that are linked to the AI trade that gap that you see is Considerably wider than it's been in the past and then finally when you do think about the long-term impacts, right? Whether it's the security aspect of something happening in the Middle East whether it's the lack of investment going in And that's why I think you know energy along with other commodities. There could be a catch-up trade But it's really more about 26 into 27 as opposed to purely a short-term play because right now supply is overriding demand There's more than enough barrels in the market and those prices are likely to stay relatively low Hmm and how do you think AI trade would evolve in? 2026 a lot of software names have ran hard and that wasn't just a 25 2025 a story. Do you think it's going to sort of a shift into more physical stuff that we're just talking about Memory chip a shortage and some of the component shortages just like we were talking about during kovat times Absolutely. So, you know, we've been very clear that in our minds this the AI trade as it were We're still it's likely to be more Semiconductor focus on software. So in that sense is a continuation of what is happening in 2025 I think what we think is really different in 2026 is within that semiconductor AI trade if you like a nice tagline it's CPUs this year versus GPUs last year because that looks like that's where the shortage is really going to set up and then secondly on The memory side while it was more advanced areas of things like high bandwidth memory this year It looks like the more commodity areas are going to be structurally undersupplied So again within that semis versus software We like that semi space But we think within the semi is that movement is now more towards what's happening on the CPUs as well as commodity memory, etc Because that is likely to see a much bigger pickup from the inferencing demand. That's a you know coming on really strong

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