Oil edged higher as investors monitored the progress on tariff talks between the U.S. and its key trade partners. President Trump announced a deal with Japan that sets the rate at 15%, as well as one with the Philippines at 19%.

Donald Trump has signed an order to impose tariffs imports into the U.S. from countries including China, Mexico and Canada.

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A newly announced trade agreement between the United States and Japan has provided relief to oil markets, calming concerns about the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations on global demand. The deal, which includes plans for a joint venture on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Alaska, is viewed as crucial for Japan’s energy security and economic stability, given its status as a major energy importer.

Market analysts note that while the agreement has improved perceptions of demand, the overall balance in oil markets remains subject to various factors, including OPEC+ supply, seasonal demand changes, and ongoing trade negotiations with other Asian countries. At present, there is no clear indication of a surplus in the market, but future developments in trade and supply will continue to influence market stability.

Vakhshouri: U.S.-Japan deal brings relief to oil markets

I've been monitoring the price of oil the last couple of days. We saw a bit of a dip yesterday in the session because of concerns about the future the fate of these trade negotiations. Obviously this morning we have the big one with Japan presumably signed or in the works. What does that do to the oil outlook. Does it necessarily boost the demand outlook here. So we have been discussing this a lot together in your program about the perceptions of the market fundamentals. Definitely the tariffs and the results of tariffs have been one of the most indicating factors on expectation over demand. But definitely the new deal between U.S. and Japan that President Trump recently announced and signed have kind of calmed their nerves and once again reminded the market that the trade tariffs and tariffs the trade negotiations could go in fact into a positive result. So yes that had a positive impact on perception of the market over demand. That could be potentially hampered if the tariff tariff negotiations would not go into effect. Sarah are you and your peers in the energy industry expecting energy to form an increasingly important part of some of the trade deals that are being inked. So there was one part of the announcements over overnight that caught my attention and that Japan is looking to set up a JV with the U.S. with the Alaska LNG export facility. Still very early stages in the project. So unclear if it's actually going to go ahead. But the point is is it your expectation that energy and purchases of LNG potentially U.S. oil exports will be a part of the mix in these deals. So sure especially for a country like Japan because even though that again in the market there is a lot of conflicts over the demand for energy particularly fossil fuel there is a huge demand perception and perspective when it comes to countries like Japan especially for natural gas. So for a country like Japan trying to seal a deal for import of LNG from United States globally but particularly United States is very crucial. And as you see in United States the discussion now is a lot about energy addition. And for for other countries especially Japan that is a major importer of energy sealing some of that deals some of those contracts and securing some of those supplies especially for natural gas which is fundamental for power generation and industries have industries that Japan is having. It's very crucial. So definitely we'll be part of it. And it's not just good for United States business and economy. Very crucial and fundamental for Japan not just for its energy security but also for its economic security economy security. Yeah. How do you see the market balance in the oil markets over the next couple of months. Because the big theme of the summer has been strong seasonal demand. But obviously as we get towards the end of the summer there's some concern that this extra supply that's hitting the market namely by OPEC plus will not be easily digested. What is your view of where the market balance is headed by end of 2025. So again going back to extra supply and market fundamentals there are different camps and different views. Definitely there is a camp that thinks that there's going to be oversupply particularly to really toward the end of this year. But on the other side if you look at the market so far there is balance. There hasn't been additional surplus of supply. And also there is the geopolitical factor that's unknown. And again there is also tariff negotiations between U.S. and different multiple countries. We just heard that Japan is not the only one. Other Asian countries also reached to certain some deals with U.S. So all of these putting into factor we have to wait and see because if we have more deals trade deals between U.S. and different countries definitely the perception over demand is going to change. Also we don't know about the seasonal changes how the winter is going to be toward the end of the year. We have to wait and see the inventories shell performance OPEC production discipline. So these are multiple factors that we are not as of now very clear about them. But again going to back to your question we don't see as of now at least a surplus in the market.

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Vakhshouri: U.S.-Japan deal brings relief to oil markets

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