Name: U.S. & India will announce trade: UTI International
Uploaded: 2025-11-10T09:12:51.142Z
Duration: 4 min 37 s
Description: Praveen Jagwani, CEO of UTI International, says India and the U.S. have reached key concessions paving the way for a trade deal. He expects the agreement to be announced once the Bihar state elections conclude and the U.S. government reopens following the shutdown.

Praveen Jagwani, CEO of UTI International, says India and the U.S. have reached key concessions paving the way for a trade deal. He expects the agreement to be announced once the Bihar state elections conclude and the U.S. government reopens following the shutdown.

Washington

The U.S. government shutdown is drawing to a close, prompting relief in global markets and a potential boost in U.S. equities. Attention is now focused on a forthcoming U.S.-India trade deal, which has seen significant progress and is expected to be announced after the Bihar state elections in India. Both nations have made concessions, particularly on farm subsidies, and the deal is anticipated to set tariffs just under 20 percent, lower than the current 25 percent.

Meanwhile, India's investment climate is improving, with recent corporate earnings showing positive surprises and valuations becoming more attractive. Foreign investment in India has been negative for the year, but recent trends and lower inflation compared to the U.S. are providing central banks in emerging markets, including India's RBI, with greater policy flexibility.

'U.S. & India will announce trade': UTI International

We have to start with what's happening in the U.S. I know it may not have direct impacts as we're already seeing from the NSC futures. But can you give us a sense of how this plays out for the world in terms of market sentiment. Sure. I mean it's great to be here. See the world is looking at the U.S. shutdown coming to an end with a sigh of relief like any parent who's pleased that the toddler's tantrum has finally ended because the U.S. with its partisan politics has really held the world to ransom. So the sigh of relief will translate into a possible immediate jump in equities in the U.S. as we've possibly seen with the perspective of India. I think what's really hot on the burner is the trade deal. And there's been some feverish activity behind the scenes over the last few weeks to get some kind of closure just as U.S. has done with China. And what we're hearing in the corridors of New Delhi that we are very close to inking that deal. And the Indian government is waiting really for the Bihar elections to be completed because it is believed that there have been some concessions made on the very tricky farm subsidies that Mr. Modi has been very particular about so far. And both sides have given some concessions. So once the U.S. shutdown is over people are back at work and the Bihar elections are over. We could very easily see a remarkable U.S. India treaty. We are looking at tariffs in the range of just under 20 percent. All right. This is very interesting that you brought this up for our audience. The Bihar elections in eastern state in India the poorest state in India perhaps lowest per capita income critical election. That's the results will come by Friday November the 14th. And you're saying that Mr. Modi the prime minister's office is effectively waiting for that to kind of go away and then have repercussions around agriculture that might be faced by the BGP by the ruling party in terms of political repercussions. The market though will not care. Oh not so much. In fact from a market always has the unique ability to look through the short term haze into the future. And that's certainly good for India because India has been in the state of funk ever since the additional tariffs announced media and the businesses want to just move on get on with already. And from that perspective having a deal which is sweeter than the 25 percent we have in place and the additional tariffs it's certainly going to be welcomed by the markets. All right. Just paint the picture for us. Look up in the sky. Tell us what the investment sky really looks at for India given there's any bubble valuation scare or there is this shutdown that is supposed to end now nearing an end. And there are other concerns around you know earnings reports. What is your general take on the Indian market from the lens of an international investor. So the international investors for the last two two and a half years have been largely risk off and they've been so enamored with the returns they've received in the U.S. particularly the tech space that there's been very little incentive to look outwards. China did really well this year and that position has been rewarded but not generally all of emerging markets. India. We've had I think three positive months of foreign inflows this year. March May and October. So overall for the year foreign investment in India has been negative 17 billion dollars. That is changing because of the earning season we just had. Almost 80 percent of Indian companies have announced their September ending quarter results. And we have seen a remarkable uptick. Almost a 2 percent increase in earnings projections. So positive surprises for the large part which will bring back into focus that India's valuations are not as expensive as they have been historically for the last let's say seven or eight quarters. So we are looking back on the cusp of a growth phase which is coming through and with the trade deal and a general sense that India's inflation is half that of the U.S. India's inflation September number is 1.5 percent. U.S. is still a three. And that general shift that EM inflation or the global south inflation is less than the developed world gives. Central banks in emerging markets far more latitude and certainly for the RBI.

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