In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at what the week of Thanksgiving could look like this year around the country.

Washington

AccuWeather's Thanksgiving week travel outlook anticipates that the northern tier of the United States, including the Northwest, Northern California, and the Northeast, may experience weather-related travel delays. This forecast is based on long-range weather models that show a storm track affecting these regions, while high pressure over the Southeast is expected to keep the southern tier mostly dry.

Both European and American weather models indicate a similar pattern, with storms likely to impact the West Coast and move northeastward as Thanksgiving approaches. Travelers in cities such as San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Denver, and the Northeast should prepare for possible delays, while those traveling from the Southwest to Florida are expected to encounter favorable weather conditions.

Travel during the week of Thanksgiving

And we're gonna take a look at Thanksgiving week. That's the story on the feed, and we're gonna use some of the same tools that we and our long-range team use on a daily basis to give us an idea of what to expect as we head into the busiest travel time of the year. All right, wanna give you a snapshot. No need to bury the lead here. This is what we're looking at as we get into Thanksgiving, and I'll show you why we're making this forecast here. We are gonna look at a storm track coming in across, well, the Northwest at times in the Northern California, but we do think there's gonna be an area of high pressure here down across Florida. That should deflect these storms northward. So as far as the entire Thanksgiving week travel, we're looking at the Northern tier, perhaps all the way down, though, in the Central and Northern California, that at times we're gonna be looking at some delays. Right now, we think the Southern tier of the U.S., from the Southwest toward much of the Carolinas and into Florida will likely not have many delays due to the weather here, but again, as we get a little closer, we'll start to zone in on that forecast here. But I wanna show you how we get there from now toward Thanksgiving day week, and I wanna show you some of the modeling we look at. Now, for those that are regular visitors to Chaos to Clarity and The Feed, you know I always look at what we call the 500 millibar or where we look at the jet stream, because if you think about it, if you know the jet stream, you know where the storms are gonna be and you know where the storms are gonna go. Now, before we get to Thanksgiving week, let's start a little before that, okay? Let's start as we get into next week here. So here we go, we're starting on Wednesday, Wednesday the 19th, and what do we see here? Well, I was talking about that area of high pressure. This is the European model. There it is, you see you have an area of high pressure across Florida here. That's the European model, this is the American model. Not as strong, but still an area of high pressure. The difference in the modeling starts with this next dip in the jet stream coming across the central US. Look at how sharp the GFS or the American model is. European is a little slower with it, a little faster, I should say, and weaker. And notice as we head toward the weekend, it takes that system very quickly, Thursday into the lakes, and then in the Saturday, here we go Friday night into the Northeast as a weakening system lifting out, next system drops in to the West. The GFS a lot different though. Take a look at this, the GFS has it a lot stronger. Look at this, it has a closed off upper low Friday. So it's got a storm here. The American model has it there. Look at the European, nope, it's way up here. So how do you resolve that? I'm starting to think that maybe instead of the GFS locking it off down here and the European in here, it's some kind of a compromise. So something goes through the Northeast as we get in toward Friday and Saturday here. Then as we get the Thanksgiving week, here's the difference in the modeling here. See, the European is showing the next system coming on in on Monday. There it is, the GFS already has it offshore. But both of them show this, a dip in the jet stream. This is Monday the 24th, you see that? The European shows it, American models shows it. European, American, so both show that. So that kind of gives us a clue that we get in the Thanksgiving week. It appears to us that you're gonna have a storm coming into the West Coast. Here's your area of high pressure. This is on the American model. And that seems reasonable that we're gonna have an area of high pressure across the Southeast. What does that mean? That's why we think much of the Southern tier of the US likely looks dry. But with this dip in the jet stream coming in to the West Coast of the United States like this, and our high pressure in here, that tells us that the storm track is going to be something like this as we head in the Thanksgiving week. So based on that, and I wanna go back to that, based on that, thinking that that's the way the pattern is going to be, perhaps we don't have the specific details. It seems reasonable to us that if you're, let's say San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Denver, Indoor, the Northeast, seems to me like that's the area that we're gonna see some travel delays. But from the Southwest of Florida, you should be A-okay. And that's the feed.

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