Name: Thanksgiving could be most profitable period of the year for airlines
Uploaded: 2025-11-26T15:51:22.296Z
Duration: 3 min 49 s
Description: CNBC’s Phil LeBeau reports on why this Thanksgiving week is looking promising for the airline industry.

CNBC’s Phil LeBeau reports on why this Thanksgiving week is looking promising for the airline industry.

Newark Liberty International Airport

Airlines are poised for a profitable Thanksgiving travel season, with a record 31 million people expected to fly during the holiday period. Despite concerns about the impact of a recent government shutdown, flight schedules and airport capacities have rebounded, and there have been no significant cancellations.

Airfares, when adjusted for inflation, remain lower than they were 15 to 20 years ago, though spending on flights may increase due to ancillary fees and premium seating. Looking ahead, airlines project about 4% capacity growth into the next year, particularly on international routes, aided by new, more flexible aircraft from Boeing and Airbus.

Thanksgiving could be most profitable period of the year for airlines

And Thanksgiving travel season could not come at a better time for the group. Who knows more about this than Phil LeBeau? I would argue no one, no single person. There he is. Morning, Phil. Thank you, David. Oh, very nice of you to say that. You know, for some airlines, Thanksgiving week could be the most profitable week of the year for them. Certainly among the most profitable. They need a strong week of travel and it's off to a relatively smooth start. Yes, there's some weather moving into the upper Midwest, but we had a record number of flights for this week that are going to be taking off, or did take off yesterday, going to be close to that on Sunday. Yesterday and Sunday, those are the two busiest days. By the way, capacity, it has rebounded from the government shutdown. And when you take a look at airports around this country, you might sit there and say to yourself, well, did anybody cancel their flights? Because they were concerned that the government shutdown might have a carryover effect, a hangover effect on the airlines. Now, that's not happening. In fact, you're going to have a record number of 31 million people traveling for what's considered Thanksgiving week, when you strap the days before the holiday and after the holiday together. Take a look at the airline index. The guidance is unchanged for the fourth quarter for almost all airlines. In fact, I haven't heard one yet say, you know, because of the shutdown, we're going to redo our guidance. The impact is probably between $150 and $200 million. That's the estimate, according to Bank of America, per airline. Significant, but not enough to change guidance at this point. And if it's a smooth week this week, that sets up the fourth quarter to potentially be what they were expecting. And therefore, you don't see the guidance changing. Take a look at American, Delta, Southwest, and United. They have all come back a little bit, a little bit from the government shutdown, but overall, guys, this has not been the year they thought it was going to be. Back in January, there have just been too many issues, repeated issues throughout the year, that have just kept these airline shares from rising to the levels that many expected earlier this year. ...thing on airfares, Phil, with affordability and cost of living so much in focus right now. Yep. You know, I use this stat, and it's true. Airfares are now lower than they were 15 or 20 years ago, inflation-adjusted. And I know there will be people who sit there and say, well, it's still going to cost me $375 or $400 because I'm flying between, I don't know, New York and Miami. Pick your city, pick your routes, whatever it might be. I understand that there will be people who say, that's not a cheap ticket. But inflation-adjusted, the airlines generally have kept fares in check. Now, where you will see fares, or the amount spent on fares increasing, are with things like ancillary revenue, or people who have decided, well, look, I want to go for a premium seat, therefore, I'm going to spend more. But overall, this gets a lot of attention. It has not had a dramatic change in a number of years, inflation-adjusted. What do you think capacity growth looks like going into 26, Phil? Should be decent. I mean, the expectation is we could see a 4% capacity growth as we go into the first quarter and the second quarter of next year. The airlines certainly believe that there's plenty of room for growth, especially internationally. There are a number of routes that the airlines are looking at and saying, we can either add more frequency or we can open up new routes, especially as you look at the aircraft that are coming out from both Boeing and Airbus, which give them far greater flexibility than they had 15 years ago.

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