Matt Shay, National Retail Federation CEO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the impact of tariffs on the retail sector and what it will mean for sector outlook.

National Retail Federation CEO Matt Shay addressed the ongoing uncertainty caused by shifting tariff deadlines, noting that unpredictability in trade policy has created challenges for retailers. He contrasted this with the stability provided by recent tax legislation, which he said allowed for better business planning and growth.

Shay explained that while some tariffs have already been imposed, the postponement of broader tariff increases has allowed retailers to build inventory and maintain stable prices for now. He emphasized that the current extension is beneficial for retailers and their partners, but warned that if tariffs are fully implemented, higher costs could eventually be passed on to consumers.

Tariff extension good for retailers, says NRF CEO Matt Shay

One of the country's most exposed sectors, that's retail. The president's shifting deadlines, creating some significant disruptions to businesses across the space, according to our next guest. Joining us this morning is National Retail Federation CEO Matt Shea. Matt, it's good to have you back. Good morning. Hi, Carl. Thank you. So, I'm sure you were listening to Contessa's view, at least from the insurer's standpoint. Are you sensing that slowdown or that muddier picture in domestic growth? Well, I think that's the big challenge with tariffs, and specifically with the uncertainty, the unpredictability, the volatility of the way in which these trade conversations have unfolded. And you can really contrast it with last week's great victory on the tax bill, which provided what all businesses crave, which is certainty about the future. And I think if you contrast the tax bill with what's going on on trade, it's really a tale of two cities. When you go back to the first Trump administration, the signature accomplishment of the first Trump administration was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and that unleashed enormous economic growth in this country. And so, preserving that as we go forward was absolutely critical, but it certainly demonstrates that when you have predictability, you can do forward planning, you know what you're going to do on production and input costs and inventory and customer demand and your supply chain. And with the way in which these trade conversations have unfolded, it's been the exact opposite of that. And so, I think when it comes to growth, we see with the tax bill, we have wind at our backs. That's a very pro-growth policy, and the way we have approached the trade conversations has created an environment, whether it was intended or not, that has restrained growth and as yet has not yielded the great results that we all hope that it will. I did read a couple takes this week, Matt, that pushing to August 1 and maybe later might help some retailers build some holiday inventory. Is that a too optimistic framework to look at? Well, I think one of the reasons we haven't seen a dramatic spike in price increases yet has been in part because many of these tariffs have been suspended, although many of them have gone on. Ten percent have gone on and a number of sectoral tariffs have gone on, and some of the emergency tariffs have gone on related to fentanyl and other things. So there are plenty of tariffs that have gone on, but the massive increases on the reciprocal side haven't been levied yet. So that's been part of it. Part of it has been, as you're suggesting, that retailers and their partners have worked to get inventory into the United States in advance. So now you've got these goods, many of them have already been sold. So we saw some of that earlier this year. We saw great sales numbers. So the low cost basis inventory is being sold through. And at some point, if the tariffs are implemented, then we're going to see higher cost of goods in terms of the cost basis of those goods. And the price increases can't be restrained forever, I think, is everyone's concern. But I do think the next three weeks, the extension is great for retailers and their partners. It's also great. I mean, the president is a great negotiator. He likes to negotiate. He's good at negotiating. He enjoys this. And he's going to negotiate until he can get the best possible deal. And we ought to commend that. But we ought to hope that we actually get deals eventually that help us avoid the imposition of these massive tariff increases.

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