In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the snow potential this weekend in the Northeast.

Northeastern United States

A winter storm is projected to impact the Northeastern United States on Sunday, bringing snow to regions including New York City, Long Island, and especially eastern New England. Forecast models indicate the storm will remain mostly offshore, but some precipitation is expected to reach inland areas, with the highest chances for accumulating snow in southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and eastern Long Island.

Most locations are expected to receive less than three inches of snow, though a small area around Boston and eastern New England could see between three and six inches. Rain may mix in at the start for some coastal areas, and the snow is not expected to extend as far south as Baltimore, Washington D.C., or Philadelphia. Additional cold weather and snow chances are possible in the region next week.

Sunday snow potential for the Northeast

All right, it's going to be a tough forecast for the feed today. We're going to take a look at the snow potential across the Northeast as we head toward Sunday and Sunday afternoon. We've been following this storm for a while. We talked about this last week, but I want to show you that I do think that we are going to be looking at some snow in New York City, Long Island, and eastern New England, maybe the Jersey Shore. Do I believe it's a big snowstorm? I do not believe that, and I'll show you why. Now, let's take a look. I want to show you this. This is kind of the snow potential map that we're looking at here as we head into the weekend here. This is it right now. Let me take this. There we go. So, there's the storm. It's going to stay mostly offshore, but I do believe that the potential is there Sunday, Sunday afternoon from the Delmarva Peninsula in New Jersey up in the eastern New England here. Now, better chances the farther east you go, that's the dark blue, across the Cape and Islands, but I do think it can start there as rain and then end as a period of snow. Now let me show you why I do think the precipitation is going to come farther north and west Sunday in the Sunday afternoon, and then I want to show you why I think that we're not looking at a big snowstorm here. Let's begin with what we were looking at yesterday, and the timeframe we've already always been looking at was that Sunday night timeframe. I want to show you the European model, and I want to show you the slight difference that it's beginning to show and what other modeling is showing that tells me the precept is getting back a little farther west. So this was yesterday. You see how you have this piece of energy up here in New England. So what that was doing was, that was moving, it's actually this piece right here. This piece of energy right here, moving, there it is, Saturday afternoon, it's right here. Okay. Sunday morning, this piece in here. What this was shown to do was heading out ahead of this southern energy in here. Let me show you what it looks like on the European. So you see, as we get toward what went Sunday evening, this piece runs up, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening, this runs up across New England, and what that does is, it then drives this other energy that's across the southern tier out to sea. That's what it was doing. So this piece runs out ahead, takes the southern piece, which is in a sense the storm, and drives it out to sea. Nobody gets anything along the East Coast, but there's been a subtle change with this. 24 hours later, watch what happens. This is what we're looking at now. You see what's going on. That piece of energy is back in here across Pennsylvania. You see that? And then you've got the whole, see, you have that energy. Look at the red. I'll put this up here so you could see it a little better here. You have that energy. Instead of it being this, in here, it's back there. 9 o'clock. Watch this. See, there is the piece yesterday across Vermont, New Hampshire, driving the southern piece out to sea. Now it's farther back, and then you've got all of this energy in here coming across where? Southeastern New England. You get a little upward motion. You get the snow. Now, other modeling, and there's a ton of modelings that are showing this now. Let me show you this is the European AIF, the AI model. Look at that. It's got axis back across New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. Now what does weaken is it swings through, but it's also becoming what I call negatively tilted. So what that means is, let me put this up at the top so you could see it a little better. So what that tells me is, with this becoming a little negatively tilted right here, you get upward motion across southeastern New England. Let's take a look at the UK Met model. Same thing. You see that area? Starts to get a little negatively tilted. Tilted from northeast, northwest to southeast, coming across eastern New England. That's going to produce some snow. How about the Canadian? Same thing. This piece comes across southeastern New England. Presto. We get the snow across eastern New England again. All right. Let me show you the surface map, and then you could see what I'm talking about. So this is the European model, the operational. Mostly offshore, Sunday, Sunday night, you see that? Mostly offshore, except for eastern New England and also eastern Long Island. Southeastern New England, eastern Massachusetts, toward eastern Long Island. That is the European. This is the AI model. Look how much farther west it is. Why? Because it has a stronger piece of energy farther west. That's the AI model, the European. How about the Canadian model? Very similar. Back to the west. Not quite as far to the west, but there it is. Look at that. There's Sunday evening. And then the UK met, another model showing it as well. So what do I think is going to happen? I think it's going to snow. I don't think it's going to get the Baltimore, Washington, D.C. Maybe flurries. I don't think it gets far as Philadelphia. Let me go back to the map here. This is where I think where we have the potential map is where you're going to get some snow Sunday night. And I think it can get back in here, Jersey Shore. I think the back is toward New York City. It goes toward Hartford. It goes toward Boston. And it comes up in eastern New England. I think these areas are going to get some accumulating snow. Now I don't believe many areas get more than three inches out of this. I don't. Now if someone does, it'll be southeastern Massachusetts. Now the Cape and eastern Long Island, you may end up having heavier precipitation, but I'm concerned you lose some as rain at the start. But I think the highest I can see with this right now is a three to six inch area. Where I can see it in toward the Boston, I can see it back in here. In here a small area like this. And then up in the eastern New England in here. But I don't think you're going to see many places that get more than six inches of snow out of this. But it is enough snow that we're going to have to keep an eye on it. And then it's going to get there as we get into Sunday, Sunday afternoon. The divisional game in Foxboro on Sunday between Houston and New England. I think there's going to be some snow for you. And then batting down the hatches, we've got a lot of cold and some snow chances next week. And that's the feed.

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