Haitong forecasts Brent crude at $70 in 2025 and $65 in 2026, citing persistent oversupply. Despite trade deals and possible Fed easing, global oil demand growth is expected to stay around 1%, while supply continues to rise—driven by OPEC+ output increases and U.S. production.

Haitong has maintained a consistent outlook on oil prices, forecasting Brent crude to average $70 this year and $65 the following year. The firm attributes this expected decline to global oil supply growth outpacing demand, with supply projected to increase by at least 1-2% while demand growth remains around 1%.

Despite positive trends in trade agreements and potential economic growth, Haitong does not anticipate a significant rise in oil demand. The company also notes that additional supply from OPEC+ and North America, as well as marginal increases from sanctioned nations, will further contribute to downward pressure on prices. Geopolitical risks are considered largely priced into the market, and OPEC+ is expected to gradually increase output to regain market share.

Oil prices to fall on lower demand : Haitong

So, Hightong's been quite consistent with our oil views. So, we're forecasting Brent around $70 this year and $65 next year. The fact of the matter is that global oil demand growth will probably be around 1% at best this year and next. Offset is global oil supply growth is at least going to be 1% or 2%. So, the last three years we've had lots of oil service activity. This is leading into more supply than demand. So, it's not easy to make a case why oil prices go up even though we've had some of these trade agreements. Yeah, we've been watching the oil prices. Of course, the geopolitics also plays a role there. But in terms of the oil demand and now what we're seeing with these, you know, the positive trend that we're seeing in the trade deals, how is that going to be impacting economic growth and demand for oil? Well, it might impact to some extent economic growth. But, you know, even if global GDP next year is 3%, the world will still just grow oil demand growth around 1%. I mean, that's sort of been the case for the last sort of 10, 20 years or so. So, it's not easy to make a case why suddenly through these trade agreements oil demand suddenly moves up next year. What about when we look to the Fed? This is also playing a factor, right? We will have a meeting from them this week. Yeah. So, I mean, all of those are positive. But, you know, also if you look at OPEC Plus, their oil policy, they're wanting to take back market share. I don't think that's going to change. So, ultimately, we've got more oil supply coming on to the market for the next sort of year or so. How closely are you paying attention to this news that the US will be allowing Chevron to operate with limitations in sanctioned nations like Venezuela? How much supply will this unleash into the market? Well, I think it's still marginal. I think, you know, by the time Chevron operates in various countries, and it has done in the past as well in Venezuela, you're not going to see a material uplift in terms of supply. What is really going to drive supply is really OPEC policy and also out of the US, North American supply as well. As we talk about these sanctioned countries, also brings up, to my mind, Russia and Iran. Russia, on its part, is the world's number two crude producer. Daily exports are forecast for August at 1.7 million barrels per day. How much at risk are these secondary sanctions that the US is talking about? Well, I think there is some risk. But as we've seen, Russia's been supplying various countries still with its oil, even under these sanctions. So I suspect if there is any further tightening of sanctions, it's not really going to materially affect physical oil supply into other countries. What is your expectations in terms of the trajectory for oil prices? So we think oil prices actually go down from where we are now on an annual basis. So we've got $65 Brent next year. Hong Kong has been particularly consistent with that over the last sort of 18 months. You are seeing more supply coming onto the market. I mentioned about OPEC+. Therefore, it's difficult to make a case why suddenly oil sort of prices go up next year. But what about the geopolitical risks? I mean, we are hearing some updates, Israel, Hamas, that there's going to be a little bit of a ceasefire. But there is still a chance for potential disruptions. That's true. But I think a lot of it's been sort of priced in already to the oil market. So it's difficult to see a new geopolitical risk impacting so much supply to change the direction of oil prices for next year. Okay, so then what will be driving? Are we going to be looking to OPEC+, and their policy? They're going to be having a JMMC, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting today. Yes, so I think their policy remains as they've outlined in the past. They're going to increase output by about half a million barrels per day gradually over the next few months. You've had OPEC over the last few years cutting back output. Now they want to take market share back. And I don't think that policy or our view is that policy won't change as we go into 2026.

Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an immediate ceasefire after days of deadly clashes at the border, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Monday following a meeting with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai.

Kuala Lumpur

Thailand, Cambodia agree to ceasefire after deadly border clashes

Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the center of a trade war, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping high tariffs at bay.

Stockholm

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Abnormally high temperatures combined with heat and drought have fuelled destructive wildfires in parts of Europe, forcing thousands to be evacuated.

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Michigan officials say they will file terrorism charges and 11 charges of assault with intent to murder against the man who allegedly carried out a knife attack at a Walmart on Saturday. Lana Zak reports.

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Denver

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President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. and European Union have come to a trade agreement after high-stakes meetings in Scotland. Weijia Jiang reports.

Edinburgh

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Tel Aviv-Yafo

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U.S. President Donald Trump played golf Saturday at his course on Scotland's coast while protesters around the country took to the streets to decry his visit and accuse United Kingdom leaders of pandering to the American president.

Protesters in Scotland take to the streets to decry Trump's visit

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Preah Vihear Province

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Manila

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Glasgow

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Washington

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Pangasinan

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Bangkok

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Ukraine Invasion

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According to preliminary data, 43 passengers, including five children, and six crew members were on board.

Breakdown