Early this week, a tropical wave will move from the Central Atlantic into the Caribbean. The wave will remain disorganized over the next few days. However, development will be more likely by mid-week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area in the Caribbean Sea, designated as Invest 98L, for potential tropical development. The likelihood of formation has increased from 30% to 60% over recent updates, as the system moves through the Lesser Antilles into a favorable environment for development.

Forecasters are considering several scenarios for the system's path, including movement toward Central America, a possible shift north into the Gulf of Mexico, or a track between Haiti and eastern Cuba. Warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear are contributing to the system's development potential. The NHC will continue to monitor the situation as the area of potential impact remains broad.

NHC continues to monitor Caribbean for tropical development

Yeah, I got a few things splashing out there, an area to watch in the Pacific Basin and also invest on the eight L. So it's invest area under investigation by the Hurricane Center for potential development as it crosses through the lesser Antilles. Maybe it gets its act together by the time it moves its way through the Caribbean Sea and the Hurricane Center did up the odds. It was 50% last hour. Now it's 60%. Have you noticed that the numbers changed from yesterday to this morning to now 30 yesterday, right? Yeah, and that's typical. That can happen because it is moving into carry Kelly, a very favorable area for development over the next week. All right, so we're gonna monitor it for places like Jamaica and eventually Central America. The wind shear off to the north of it so that will really not be a limiting factor when it comes to developing. Also, we've got the lots of, you know, sea surface temperatures that are plenty warm enough. Think of these storms growing like weeds and cheer is the lawn mower. If the lawnmower doesn't come by, we're gonna grow right and where we expect this to grow and go at least according to one scenario due west where it could affect Central America more likely to happen. So we're gonna be following it, possibly causing mud, mud slides there and some flooding. Scenario number two is not as likely if it kind of moves to the north, but it happens later rather than sooner and therefore it goes into the gulf and that would be more of a concern for our country. And then the third could be splitting the difference between parts of Haiti and eastern Cuba going to the north widespread area though. And we do see things widening out in terms of potential in the coming days. Not unusual.

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