The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is here, but the tropics are eerily quiet at this time. This is partly because of increased wind shear and dry Saharan air in place across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

During what is typically the most active period for hurricanes, the Atlantic basin is seeing little storm activity. Meteorologists attribute this to persistent wind shear, a deep trough, and the presence of stable Saharan air, all of which inhibit storm formation. 

While the Pacific region is experiencing warmer conditions and may see increased storm activity, the central Atlantic remains an area to monitor in the coming weeks. Forecast updates are expected, but for now, the tropics are unusually quiet for this time of year.

It’s peak hurricane season, but the tropics are quiet

The basin overall is just not healthy, okay? I mean, and I'll show you why here in a second. Aaron was our big storm, and that was a cat five, produced all sorts of wave action on the east coast. Didn't landfall, thank God, and it was a very big hurricane, all right? It was like Katrina big, even maybe even a little bit bigger than Katrina was, this being the 20th anniversary of that. September tracks can literally come from anywhere. Gulf, Caribbean, everything's hot. This is where you have typically decreased shear and your most convection. Those things overlap, which is what gives you the peak. Well, as you can see, we don't have a lot. We have a front, which has pretty much been ever present since the beginning of August in the east, but that's also where you have your shear because look at how deep the trough is, all right? So there's a lot of shear down and through here. It'd be very hard for something to develop, but we also have this big subtropical ridge here with easterly shear, which is coming across. So you kind of get nailed from the east and you have what is not necessarily dust, but it is Saharan air. So that is typically stable and you can see how that's come off. So what typically is peaking in July is continued into August and also now in towards September as well. Either way, CPC updates this map tomorrow in terms of the probabilities. Notice the Pacific is hot, all right? And I think we're gonna see at least a couple of storms there as we go through the next couple of weeks, but we do have a little bit of a ramp up here in the central Atlantic and this is the area that we're gonna have to watch. I think next week, maybe we'll get something that'll be of interest to us.

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