The U.S. is less than a year out from the midterm elections and CBS News' Anthony Salvanto is following the battle over redistricting that could shape the House's balance of power next year.

Washington

Ongoing redistricting efforts across key U.S. states are expected to influence the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. California's recent passage of Proposition 50 could add up to five Democratic seats, while Texas may gain a similar number for Republicans, with other states like Utah, Ohio, and Virginia also considering changes that could affect both parties.

Experts note that these changes may ultimately balance each other out, as each party leverages control in their respective states. However, the process has raised concerns about gerrymandering, as the proportion of seats held by each party can exceed their actual voter support. Analysts caution that shifts in voter behavior could still alter expected outcomes.

How redistricting could affect House of Representatives' power balance

We're less than a year out from the midterm elections, and CBS News is continuing to follow the battle over redistricting that should shape the balance of power next year. Last week, you'll remember California passed Prop 50 to redraw its congressional map, which could potentially add up to five Democratic seats. Several states have recently adopted redistricting measures, too, in an effort to maintain a Republican majority in the House. CBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys Anthony Salvato joins us now for more. So, Anthony, what are we looking at here? Okay. So, see the breakdown. You mentioned California plus five potential Democratic seats, right? And that, folks will recall, was meant to counter Texas's plus five potential Republican seats, okay? Now, you've got these developments lately where there could be another Democratic seat out of Utah after a ruling there, and there could be a couple of Republican seats, maybe two or more, if Ohio goes ahead and redraws its districts. On the other hand, last week we saw elections in Virginia. Democrats did very well. They could maybe find two more seats for the Democrats in Virginia. Overall, you start to see a theme developing here, which is that this could end up being a wash, right? It could end up where each state, given the control that each party has in that state, could affect some redistricting changes. And the other thing to show you is, look at the proportions of the partisan breakdowns of the states and then the number of seats that their party holds. And what you'll see is that there's often more seats held than the partisan break. So here's California's as it stands now. That's going to go higher. Texas's, that proportion, is going to go higher. And I can do that in state after state. So Ohio, I mentioned, 55 percent Trump, but they could control even more as a proportion of their House seats. What that is, that's gerrymandering, right? And that's the difference between gerrymandering and redistricting, as folks are sort of following this at home. They're gaining even more potential seats based on their control of the process. And I'll show you Virginia just to show you a Democratic example. 52 percent in the last presidential, this proportion of seats held could go higher still. That's what this all means. Is the idea that these two numbers should be as close to each other as they can be? Well, it's a measure of gerrymandering. And folks will argue this point about whether it should be. And others will say, no, no, this is the will of the people and that's what they're electing in their districts. Because remember, most partisan folks just vote for their party back in. I will add this, though, none of this is a guarantee, Lindsay. And it's so important because, look, even we saw last week in New Jersey, a lot of Hispanic voters voted for the Democrat, but a lot of them voted for Trump last time. In all of these districts, there are assumptions being made about how voters will behave. And if they change from past patterns, then all of this could be different than what the regular partisan breaks might say. Interesting. As always, Anthony Savanto, thank you. Thanks.

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