Flooding downpours will bring a significant flash flood threat to the Northeast region of the U.S. This could lead to potentially life-threatening conditions as well as severe travel disruptions.

New England

Meteorologists from AccuWeather have highlighted a significant flash flood risk stretching from New England to the mid-Atlantic region. The concern arises from slow-moving thunderstorms fueled by high atmospheric moisture and instability, which are expected to produce intense rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. 

Major cities such as Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City are at heightened risk, with urban flooding possible in subways and streets. Rural and higher terrain areas could also experience creek, stream, and even mud or rock slides. The rainfall event is notable for its intensity and wide coverage, despite not being associated with a tropical system, and residents in low-lying areas are advised to move to higher ground if warnings are issued.

Flash flood risk extending from New England to mid-Atlantic

Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City, and in the southeastern New England. All right, joining me right now is AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter. You know, Jon, this came on our radar late last week, and then over the weekend, we got more and more confident, and then we made the call about this flood risk on Monday. That's right, Bernie. AccuWeather experts have been having this in our forecast, talking about the risk for flash flooding in the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast since Monday, days ahead of all other known sources, so that people can be best prepared and stay safer. We're concerned about this setup because of the reasons you talked about. There's sunshine outside already in Baltimore, building instability, fuel for these thunderstorms, and they're going to be slow-moving, Bernie, which means persistent downpours at a significant flash flood risk in major cities. As you know, one of my favorite tools is the water vapor loop here, Jon, and there's a reason for that, because what we'll first start, here's the front. You can see where it is from northern New England back toward the Midwest. So there it is at the surface, but the reason it moves is the steering flow in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere. What's the steering flow? Unfortunately, the steering flow isn't perpendicular to the front, Jon. It's parallel. That is, it's moving west-southwest to northeast, and that means that front's not in a hurry to push south. No, and this is actually a very concerning setup that we see when we look at the water vapor loop here, because look at all these greens and darker blues here. This is indicative of higher levels of atmospheric moisture, and notice it's going from southwest to northeast, parallel with that front, so there's nothing to give it a push and keep it moving. That's why we're concerned about that moisture training over the same areas with these slow-moving storms, and that's a recipe for trouble. And dry air. Look at that dry air. New York City, Harrisburg, Washington, D.C. So right now, that means the sun is out, and as you mentioned, that makes the atmosphere even more unstable. But we have another ingredient, another ingredient. Of course, we have the dew point temperatures well in the 60s and 70s here, Jon, but this is a lot of energy in our upper air map to come in across this part of the country this time of the year. It sure is, and what we're talking about here is spin in the atmosphere with these oranges and red colors, and out ahead of those areas of spin, that's where the air wants to be lifted, producing clouds and rain, heavy rain in this case, and this is a lot of jet stream energy for this time of the year. This is a more typical setup, more of like spring or fall, so to get this with such high levels of atmospheric moisture, that's the worrying setup here. Yeah, there's the dew point temperatures, 70 degrees in New York City, 76 in Harrisburg, 77 in Washington, D.C., Jon. All right, let's take a look at the future radar here. This is the latest. This is what's concerning by the time we get into early afternoon. Right, it's not going to take too long. Look at this, 2.30 on the eastern time on the future radar here. Look at these reds and yellows already developing across southeastern Pennsylvania, parts of New Jersey. These are heavy thunderstorms that are going to be producing rain rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, and more important than the amount of rainfall, the total amount of rainfall, is how fast that rain is falling. That's too fast, too furious, and that's going to result in significant flash flooding concerns. This is the kind of setup that can, in a major metro area like New York City, as soon as that rain rate gets above an inch and a half per hour, that's when you get flooding in the subways and streets, also creek and stream flooding in the more rural areas, and there can even be, in the higher terrain of northeastern Pennsylvania or the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, some rock slides or mud slides in hard-hit areas. You know, Jon, we were talking with our flooding expert, Alex Zanowski, and he made a point. This is an unusual amount of rain over a larger area for this time of the year that does not associate with a tropical system. It is unusual. 2 to 4 inches of rain over a wide area from parts of New England through the mid-Atlantic states with an AccuWeather local storm max of 8, and so such unusual amounts of rainfall lead to a higher risk of flash flooding. Move to higher ground if you get flash flood warnings for your community, especially if you live along creek, stream, waterway, or other low-lying area. And the flash flood threat's a little dangerous for New York City, Jon, because we feel pretty certain that we're going to easily get 1 to 2-inch rain amounts here per hour in some of these storms. Exactly, and that's all it's going to take to produce significant flash flooding. All right. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. Jon, thanks for breaking it down here on AccuWeather Early.

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