Andy Rothman, founder of Sinology, says he expects China's 2026 GDP growth target to be lower than 2025's 5% level, but adds that in his opinion, China's GDP numbers and trade surplus in dollar terms are the two least important statistics for investors.

Beijing

Economic analysts are questioning the emphasis placed on China's GDP growth rate, noting that it is likely to be set lower than 5 percent for 2026 and may not be the most meaningful statistic for investors. Instead, they recommend monitoring indicators such as consumer and entrepreneur confidence, private investment, and income growth, as these better reflect the health of China's economy.

The discussion also addresses China's export resilience and large trade surplus, but suggests that these figures are less important than commonly believed. The analysts point out that China's role as a major consumer and importer is more relevant, and that the trade surplus is more of a political issue than an economic one.

China's GDP growth probably its 'least important' economic statistic

So what are you looking for in 2026. Can we see growth of around 5 percent when it is announced at the National People's Congress. I assume that they're going to put a target a little bit lower than that. It is difficult to believe that they could hit 5 percent again this year. But I would also argue that for investors that's not the number that they should be focused on. The GDP growth rate is probably the least important economic statistic in China and probably in most other countries too. In the U.S. for example we don't obsess over the GDP growth rate the way we do when we talk about China. So what I think we really should be focusing on are the data that will indicate that confidence among consumers and confidence among entrepreneurs is coming back. And with respect to entrepreneurs remember that China's changed a lot over the last several decades. When I first worked there in the early 80s there were no private companies at all. Today small private companies account for about 90 percent of urban employment and all the net new job creation all the innovation all the wealth creation. So we need to look for private investment to come back. We need to look for private hiring to come back income growth to start accelerating again. And then we'll see a drawdown in that excess savings I talked about before as consumers feel better about spending and are saving a little bit less. So we'll try to not obsess about the GDP figure. We promise we will try. But I want to get your take on in terms of what the economy will look like in the coming year. So we saw resilience in exports for 2025. That can't be the case for a second year running. Can it. Well I wouldn't expect significant weakness in Chinese exports because China just remains really competitive in a lot of areas. And there just aren't a lot of alternatives. We've seen that talk about tech restrictions about tariffs really hasn't dramatically weakened Chinese export growth. But at the same time we can't see the same kind of growth again this year. The base is just going to be too high for that. And as I said I think that government policy is going to gradually promote more on the domestic demand side especially on the consumption side. So was that a one point two trillion dollar trade surplus figure. Was that a surprise to you. And you don't think that it can maintain that level. I would argue that the trade surplus in dollar terms is probably the second least important statistic that we obsess about after the GDP growth rate. You know China's. China's import growth has slowed considerably. But I don't think that's because they're closing their doors to the world. It's because economic activity has been weaker. It's the same thing here in the United States. When the economy is weaker the trade balance is better. But that's not something you want to aim for. I think what's more important is that we recognize that China is the world's second largest consumer economy. It is the fastest growing consumer economy in the world. And it's also China is the second largest importer. So I think that the trade surplus is more of a political issue rather than an economics issue.

Prince Harry is back in a London court, along with a slew of other high-profile figures, fighting the publisher of the Daily Mail over invasion of privacy and illegal information gathering tactics.

London

Prince Harry back in London court fighting British tabloids

Billionaire wealth surged at three times ‍its recent pace ​last year to reach its highest level on record, deepening economic and political divides that threaten democratic ⁠stability, anti-poverty group Oxfam said.

World billionaire wealth hits new peak amid rising poverty, Oxfam says

A high-speed train collision that caused a derailment in southern Spain has killed at least 39 people, officials say. Investigators are working to determine the cause of the crash.

Adamuz

High-speed train crash in Spain kills dozens

Prime Minister Mark Carney is considering sending Canadian Forces personnel to Greenland for military exercises with NATO allies in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats on European nations who block his efforts to acquire the island, two senior Canadian officials told CBC News.

Ottawa

Carney considering sending troops to Greenland for NATO exercises

The deal followed hours after the Syrian army seized oil and gas fields and two major northeastern towns in clashes with the SDF. Fighting earlier this month has displaced tens of thousands.

Aleppo

Syrian government agrees to ceasefire with Kurdish-led SDF

European countries held an emergency meeting in Brussels Sunday in response to President Trump's post threatening tariffs against countries that have sent military forces into Greenland amid his push to annex the Arctic island.

Brussels

European leaders denounce Trump's tariff threat over Greenland

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Asunción

EU seals contentious trade deal with Mercosur countries

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Nuuk

Greenland Stand-Off

European governments condemn Trump's tariff threats over Greenland

Palestinians in Gaza expressed both concern and hope after the White House announced some members of a so-called "Board of Peace" that will supervise the temporary governance of the war-torn enclave, which has been under a fragile ceasefire since October.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Gazans wary as U.S. names 'Board of Peace' under Trump's plan

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Trump escalates pressure on Europe over Greenland control

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Minneapolis

Pro and anti-ICE protesters clash in Minneapolis

Iran's supreme leader blamed the U.S. for the protests against his regime that resulted in a violent crackdown. Willie James Inman has President Trump's response.

Tehran

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Trump announces new tariffs on European countries who backed Greenland

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Copenhagen

Thousands take part in 'Hands off Greenland' protests in Denmark

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Global Tariffs

Trump threatens tariffs against European nations over Greenland support

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni won his seventh term with 71.65% of votes, according to official results Saturday, defeating the youthful challenger who campaigned for change after four decades of the same government.

Kampala

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni wins seventh term

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Ukraine Invasion

Ukraine will not cede any of its territory, Zelenskyy says

The United States on Thursday said Iran halted 800 executions of protesters under pressure from President Donald Trump, after Gulf allies appeared to pull him back from military action over Tehran's deadly crackdown on demonstrations.

U.S. claims Iran halts executions of protesters amid crackdown

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump on Thursday at the White House. She presented Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize medal, which was seen as a peace offering to win his support.

Washington

Venezuela Strikes

Venezuelan opposition leader presents Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize

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NATO troops head to Greenland amid Trump's threats

NASA says it could be just weeks away from launching astronauts on a flight around the moon for the first time in more than half a century. Final preparations are underway at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where the Artemis II moon rocket is expected to roll out to the launch pad on Saturday.

Cape Canaveral

Final preparations for Artemis II launch underway

A South Korean court on Friday (January 16) sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison on charges that included obstructing attempts by authorities to arrest him following his failed bid to impose martial law in December 2024.

Seoul

Five years' jail for South Korea's Yoon in first martial law penalty

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Trump threatens to use military against Minneapolis protests

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Tel Aviv-Yafo

U.S. backs Palestinian civil engineer to administer Gaza

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Gaza deal's second phase to begin

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday a "state of emergency" will be declared in the energy sector, after relentless Russian strikes on heat and electricity supplies during freezing winter temperatures.

Breakdown