Andy Rothman, founder of Sinology, says he expects China's 2026 GDP growth target to be lower than 2025's 5% level, but adds that in his opinion, China's GDP numbers and trade surplus in dollar terms are the two least important statistics for investors.

Beijing

A strategist interviewed by CNBC stated that China's GDP growth rate is likely to be set below 5 percent at the National People's Congress, and argued that this figure is not the most important economic indicator for investors. Instead, the strategist emphasized the need to focus on consumer and entrepreneur confidence, private sector activity, and income growth as more meaningful measures of economic health.

The discussion also addressed China's export performance, noting that while exports remained resilient in 2025, similar growth is unlikely to continue due to a higher base. The strategist further downplayed the significance of China's trade surplus, suggesting it is more of a political issue than an economic one, and highlighted the country's growing role as a major consumer and importer.

China GDP growth rate probably least important econ stat: Strategist

So what are you looking for in 2026. Can we see growth of around 5 percent when it is announced at the National People's Congress. I assume that they're going to put a target a little bit lower than that. It is difficult to believe that they could hit 5 percent again this year. But I would also argue that for investors that's not the number that they should be focused on. The GDP growth rate is probably the least important economic statistic in China and probably in most other countries too. In the U.S. for example we don't obsess over the GDP growth rate the way we do when we talk about China. So what I think we really should be focusing on are the data that will indicate that confidence among consumers and confidence among entrepreneurs is coming back. And with respect to entrepreneurs remember that China's changed a lot over the last several decades. When I first worked there in the early 80s there were no private companies at all. Today small private companies account for about 90 percent of urban employment and all the net new job creation all the innovation all the wealth creation. So we need to look for private investment to come back. We need to look for private hiring to come back income growth to start accelerating again. And then we'll see a drawdown in that excess savings I talked about before as consumers feel better about spending and are saving a little bit less. So we'll try to not obsess about the GDP figure. We promise we will try. But I want to get your take on in terms of what the economy will look like in the coming year. So we saw resilience in exports for 2025. That can't be the case for a second year running. Can it. Well I wouldn't expect significant weakness in Chinese exports because China just remains really competitive in a lot of areas. And there just aren't a lot of alternatives. We've seen that talk about tech restrictions about tariffs really hasn't dramatically weakened Chinese export growth. But at the same time we can't see the same kind of growth again this year. The base is just going to be too high for that. And as I said I think that government policy is going to gradually promote more on the domestic demand side especially on the consumption side. So was that a one point two trillion dollar trade surplus figure. Was that a surprise to you. And you don't think that it can maintain that level. I would argue that the trade surplus in dollar terms is probably the second least important statistic that we obsess about after the GDP growth rate. You know China's. China's import growth has slowed considerably. But I don't think that's because they're closing their doors to the world. It's because economic activity has been weaker. It's the same thing here in the United States. When the economy is weaker the trade balance is better. But that's not something you want to aim for. I think what's more important is that we recognize that China is the world's second largest consumer economy. It is the fastest growing consumer economy in the world. And it's also China is the second largest importer. So I think that the trade surplus is more of a political issue rather than an economics issue.

Prince Harry is back in a London court, along with a slew of other high-profile figures, fighting the publisher of the Daily Mail over invasion of privacy and illegal information gathering tactics.

London

Prince Harry back in London court fighting British tabloids

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Adamuz

High-speed train crash in Spain kills dozens

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Ottawa

Carney considering sending troops to Greenland for NATO exercises

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Aleppo

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Brussels

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Asunción

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Nuuk

Greenland Stand-Off

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Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

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Minneapolis

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Tehran

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Copenhagen

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Global Tariffs

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Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni won his seventh term with 71.65% of votes, according to official results Saturday, defeating the youthful challenger who campaigned for change after four decades of the same government.

Kampala

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Ukraine Invasion

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Washington

Venezuela Strikes

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Cape Canaveral

Final preparations for Artemis II launch underway

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Seoul

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Tel Aviv-Yafo

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Breakdown