DeIt's likely that we'll see Tropical Storm Fernand while Erin is still spinning off the East Coast.

South Carolina

Meteorologists are closely monitoring several new tropical disturbances forming in the Atlantic, following the recent activity of Erin. One system in particular is showing a high risk of developing into a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm, though strong wind shear in its path is expected to limit its intensification compared to Erin. 

Another disturbance is also being tracked further east, with a medium chance of development. The ongoing pattern suggests that the 'tropical wave train' remains active, and meteorologists will continue to watch these systems as they evolve.

Beyond Erin, more tropical trouble is already brewing

We're going to take a look at what's going on elsewhere beyond air and out into the Atlantic. And we're watching a few areas of deep convection. You can see a large zone here of deep convection and a couple of different concern zones. We put another bubble on it. While there's a lot of deep convection southwest of the center of this next disturbance, we really expect the center of this to kind of begin to focus a little north of the deeper zone of convection. Far south here, south of north 10 degrees north latitude. We will be watching this disturbance. And there's another one behind that as well. So we're going to get into a time period where Fernand may soon follow. We have a high risk for development coming out of that next plume of moisture, the next tropical wave. And while we expect this to likely organize into a tropical depression, possibly a tropical storm this weekend into early next week, the likelihood of this intensifying as much as we saw with Aaron is fairly limited. There is a lot more wind shear in the path of this storm. So look at this here. In the short term, it's in a zone with limited wind shear. So it's a pretty healthy tropical wave at the moment. But there is a big speed bump here and a pretty broad speed bump from east to west. In fact, it is about, what, 10 degrees longitude. You can see every 5 degrees longitude, there's another north-south line here on the map. That's a pretty sizable zone of strong wind shear. So that's going to be a big hurl for this. But then there's a somewhat limited zone of less wind shear where it could organize. But then behind that, another zone of stronger wind shear. So it could become a named entity this weekend. But we're going to be watching this strong flow coming off of the east coast, a relatively deep trough, and I think that's going to protect us here from that one. Farther east, the next one behind likely what could become Fernand. Fernand, here we have another storm with a medium chance for development. So the tropical wave train is alive and well.

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