Name: Analyst says to expect US-India trade deal by June
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T08:22:17.380Z
Duration: 2 min 29 s
Description: Sumedha Dasgupta, Senior Analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit, says the US-India trade deal will come through within the first half of the year.

Sumedha Dasgupta, Senior Analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit, says the US-India trade deal will come through within the first half of the year.

Delhi

An analyst speaking to CNBC stated that negotiations between the United States and India have made progress, with a trade deal expected to be finalized by the first half of the year. The analyst noted that while public comments from US officials have sometimes suggested tension, much of the negotiation is happening behind the scenes and is not reflected in media coverage.

Concerns about the possibility of extremely high tariffs were dismissed as unlikely, with the analyst emphasizing that India remains a crucial market for the US. The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach, and a favorable trade agreement is anticipated in the coming months.

Analyst says to expect US-India trade deal by June

We do know that Mr. Trump has the habit of speaking off the cuff. Many people in his administration also share a similar trait. So I wouldn't really say that because these kind of comments have come through even earlier ever since August of last year. And there's still been progress on negotiations. There's been definitely progress on both sides. There's been a lot of talk. So everything is not just what's being spoken in the media. I think I would expect that a trade deal would certainly come through by the first half of this year. I feel that the way that the central bank is looking at it at this point of time is to wait and watch. So I don't expect that in February they're going to make any kind of rate move. I feel that if they don't have enough information on which direction the trade deal is progressing in then potentially we will see another rate cut in April. But we also have a backdrop of fairly strong growth. Of course keeping that growth strong in an environment where the U.S. trade deal does not come through is going to be challenging. So of course the government will then have to rethink its metrics in that sense. But I would still think that a trade deal is certainly on the cards and it's going to come up within the next couple of months. I want to ask you because another question on tariffs because the U.S. ambassador Sergio Gore would be assuming duties at the U.S. embassy would have assumed duties today. Has India should India should the market really consider the possibility of 500 percent tariffs through a new bill or a delayed trade deal. You know given the continuing geopolitical uncertainty and general tariff uncertainty in terms of whether a trade deal is happening or not or should this be considered as just bluster. That is something that you refer to. Well I think that is a really devastating situation which is effectively a trade embargo. Right. So I don't think that is certainly not something that markets or any forecaster would baseline. Consider Mr. Gore of course we know is very close to President Trump and generally would obviously want to kind of keep up the pressure tactics that the U.S. has generally been using on not just India but every single trade partner that it's been talking to. So I don't think that doomsday kind of prophecy is likely to come about. India is obviously very very important market for the U.S. It's not just a one way street. So I think that definitely trade talks will continue and we will have a fairly favorable deal over the next few months as I said.

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