In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the snowstorm potential for the Northeast.

Northeastern United States

Meteorologists have been monitoring a weather pattern that could have brought a significant snowstorm to the Northeastern United States later in the week. However, updated forecast models now show that the primary storm system will form offshore and track out to sea, sparing major East Coast cities from heavy snowfall.

While interior sections of the Northeast may see some intermittent snow, accumulation is expected to be minor. Cities such as New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. are unlikely to receive significant snow, though Boston may see some snowfall Thursday night into Friday morning. Attention will now shift to potential weather developments over the upcoming weekend.

Will there be a snowstorm in the Northeast later this week?

All right, we're taking a look at late in the week. We've been talking about this time frame this week from about two weeks ago when we saw what the pattern was going to look like. And again, the review, this is the pattern that we saw a couple of weeks ago that you'd get this injection of cold air coming on south that would bring the jet stream south. You'd have a boundary that would stall out on the eastern edge of that colder air, a storm would form, and then this is the setup you always play with. Where's the storm going? If it isn't out to sea, then there would be limited snow, but it comes up the coast, you can have a snowstorm. This is the way you get a snowstorm, because the air would be cold enough for snow, depending on how everything would set up. Now, as I sit here, though, and we talked about this last week, that there was going to be two opportunities, one Thursday, Friday, and another one over the weekend, that either one of them would hit or both of them would miss, you wouldn't get two. It appears very likely that this is going to be a miss, the first one, Thursday and the Friday. This setup is going to end up missing, and I want to show you why. Let me show you. There's the setup. You're going to get a storm to form, I think it's going to be mostly offshore, there will be some snow across the interior sections of the Northeast, nothing that I see looks like a snowstorm. Now, it was a lot closer last weekend, last week, when we were looking at this dip in the jet stream. Let me show you where we're at. Now, last week, I'm going to stop this, this is the GFS model, the American model, on Thursday morning. If I can get this, there we go, sorry. So the difference was, last week, you see where this closed off upper low was? It was down here, and our trough axis was a little farther west, so that gave this room to come northward. But that's not what the modeling looks like now, and as I said, it was a close call, it's actually not going to be as close as I once thought it was going to be. Here's the European-American, European-American, pretty similar. Now, the other thing is, you've got this piece of energy in the southern branch. This is the storm. It also looks like distance is not getting out ahead of the trough fast enough for the storm to form. So you've got two strikes against it, and also, this trough axis is awfully far east. Now, what I mean by that is that any storm that would form, and it looks like you are going to get a storm to form down here, look at the way the upper level is here, the upper low is here, number one, I would want it a little farther south to get a storm. But the big thing is, look at your trough axis, it's kind of neutral or positive. It's kind of oriented like this, from southwest to northeast. Why is that important? Because that means you have a west-southwest flow aloft, and what happens is, is that while the storm does form, instead of it being guided up the coast, it is guided, because of the west-southwest flow aloft, it's guided out to sea. That's the American model, European is very similar. See? Look at that. Here's your energy, here's your storm, this comes around the bend, but because the trough is oriented like this, you have a west-southwest flow aloft, and the storm goes out to sea. Now, let me show you the surface map for this, let's start with the European model. So here we go, storm forms, there it is, there it is, it's right in here. Now it's pretty far offshore, but if you had an upper-level pattern that looked like this, the trough axis a little farther west, instead of it being Pittsburgh to Buffalo, it was, I don't know, maybe even Detroit toward Indianapolis, you'd get enough of a southerly flow to bring this storm northward into the colder air, which is in here. Here's the colder air, cold enough for snow, you would bring this storm northward, you'd drill in the cold air to the 95, and then you would get snow. But watch what the modeling does. There's the European, out to sea. You see that? Now you have another storm that tries to form, too, on Thursday, but everything is out to sea. Why is that? Because of that upper flow. You go back to the upper air pattern, and you see that? Your storm's in here, but you have a west-southwest flow, and it takes it out to sea, no matter what modeling you look at. The only complicating issue is that you still do have to deal with this, this upper low. You see it? Right across Pennsylvania. Now, there's going to be some snow underneath this upper low. It's going to be intermittent, but persistent in the cold air. So you're going to end up getting a few inches of snow out of this, but when you track it, where does the upper low go? Well, let's take a look at the European. It goes from Buffalo, right along the New York State Thruway, moves eastward, right in there. So your track of the upper low is like this. Now, because of the way the terrain is in the Northeast, and you have the mountain ranges in here, that means you get a down-sloping flow, New York City, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and you're not going to get any snow. Now, maybe New York, you have to be a little careful, just in case the upper low comes a little farther south, but from Philadelphia toward Washington, D.C. on south, if this upper low is there, and you're off to the north of the upper low, you get a drying west-northwest flow, and you don't get any precipitation as well, and the model's showing that. You see? Look at where all the precipitation is Thursday morning, right in here. See that? Now, you might get a little bit of rain and snow with the frontal boundary, but you see Thursday morning, you see where all this is Thursday afternoon, it's all back in here with the upper low, back in here. You get too much of west-northwest flow, maybe you get some flurries and some rain and snow showers in New York City, but right now, it looks very unlikely you get much of any snow in New York City, and even when you look at the model, print out snow, and for those that have been following me on X for years, I typically wouldn't show this, and I don't even know if I have it. Do I have it? Okay, here it is. Look at the snow accumulation, and here it is. It's in here. All in here. Nothing. New York City and south. Now, Boston, we'll have to keep an eye on this for Thursday night, Friday morning. I could see how some snow backs up for you, but right now, we've averted an east coast snowstorm for Thursday, Friday. Tomorrow on the feed, we'll be looking at more over the weekend, where we've got to keep an eye on that. But from my perspective, we've missed the east coast snowstorm. Good news for those that don't like snow, and that's the feed.

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