Senior analyst at Australian Strategic Policy Institute Malcolm Davis weighs in on negotiations surrounding security guarantees for Ukraine following the White House summit, and what he thinks a successful ceasefire would look like.

Kyiv

Russian forces have invaded Ukraine from land, air and sea with strikes causing widespread damage. Global leaders have condemned the move and imposed sanctions.

Ukraine Invasion

A successful ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would require strong, enforceable security guarantees, according to experts. These guarantees should closely resemble NATO's Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, and must be supported by Western peacekeeping forces and ongoing military assistance to Ukraine.

The discussion also underscores that peace negotiations cannot proceed while hostilities continue, making a ceasefire an essential first step. Effective enforcement, potentially including a no-fly zone and boots on the ground, is seen as crucial to prevent renewed attacks and to create conditions for meaningful peace talks.

What would make for a successful Russia-Ukraine ceasefire?

We'll talk about security guarantees, because that seems to be potentially the closest thing to reality at the moment. From your perspective, are any security guarantees accepted by Putin really secure? Well, I wouldn't trust Putin as far as I could throw him in terms of security guarantees. I mean, we've had the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, which he violated almost immediately. So I think that anything that Putin says in regards to security guarantees, we need to take with a grain of salt. I think for the security guarantees to be meaningful, firstly, there must be as close as possible to NATO Article 5, which means an attack on one is an attack on all. So in that sense, another attack on Ukraine by Russia in the future would be effectively an attack on NATO, and NATO would then have to respond to that. Second point is that that security guarantee must be backed up two ways. Firstly, it must be backed up by peacekeeping forces on the ground that are Western forces, ideally from NATO states with U.S. coordination or U.S. lead. And secondly, they must be backed up by Western continued support for Kyiv in terms of military assistance, in terms of sales of weapons capabilities, and most importantly, the sharing of critical military intelligence. If those components are not there in a security guarantee, then it's really not worth the paper it's written on. Malcolm, one of the more remarkable things about yesterday's meeting, at least the public part with the European leaders, was pretty much all of them pleading publicly for a ceasefire and President Trump repeatedly saying over and over, no, thanks, it's not necessary. Do you see a ceasefire as a crucial next step? Absolutely. There has to be a ceasefire for any peace process to go ahead. You cannot negotiate peace under fire of enemy missiles and bombs. And I think that it's completely unfair on Ukraine to expect them to do that. I think that so long as the Russians are continuing to attack Ukraine, they'll have little incentive to engage in any meaningful peace process because Putin feels that he can win militarily. So there has to be a ceasefire, that ceasefire has to be enforced through some sort of Western peacekeeping force with booths on the ground. And there has to be some sort of essentially ability to control the airspace and to make sure that Ukraine is not attacked directly by Russia during peace negotiations. So we are talking a no-fly zone in that potential possibility. And that's the only way you're going to have an effective ceasefire is if it's enforced.

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What would make for a successful Russia-Ukraine ceasefire?

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Ukraine Invasion