Name: What is ahead for restaurant stocks in 2026
Uploaded: 2025-12-30T23:58:30.735Z
Duration: 3 min 35 s
Description: Restaurant stocks were down overall this past year, but fast food names were thriving, with Dutch Bros the runaway standout.

Restaurant stocks were down overall this past year, but fast food names were thriving, with Dutch Bros the runaway standout.

Wall Street

Restaurant stocks have shown mixed results, with fast casual brands like Sweetgreen, Cava, and Chipotle experiencing significant declines, while fast food chains such as McDonald's, Yum Brands, and Dutch Bros have performed better. Analysts attribute these trends to consumers seeking value amid economic uncertainty and inflation, with value menus and loyalty programs becoming increasingly important.

Looking ahead to 2026, industry experts predict that fast food restaurants will continue to emphasize value offerings, while fast casual brands will introduce new menu options to attract customers. Loyalty programs are expected to play a larger role in targeting consumers, and some investors see potential in stocks like McDonald's and Shake Shack as trading opportunities.

What is ahead for restaurant stocks in 2026

Mr. Appetite for restaurant stocks. It has been, it's been mixed this year. You got consumers increasingly hunting for value. Some fast casual names have really, Sweetgreen, that's down 79%. Cava, once hot IPO, down 48%. Chipotle, down 38%. But you know what's up? Yum Brands, McDonald's up a little bit. And you got Eat as well. Some casual dining stocks have held up relatively well. So let's get more in the setup, heading into the new year. Talk to Kate Rogers, Kate, about sort of trying to figure out who's winning here. It's kind of mixed. Totally mixed, Brian. Good to see you. So BTIG sums it up as a humbling year for the restaurant sector. And that's really putting it mildly for some of these names. You mentioned fast casual. Quick service restaurants really took the brunt of losses this year. Cava, Shake Shack, Chipotle, Bloomin' Brands, all seeing major pullbacks, down double digits year to date. Sweetgreen actually the biggest lagger, down around 80%, as younger consumers kind of tighten their spending in this uneven economy. Meanwhile, the winners for the year, fast food names including McDonald's, Yum Brands, Restaurant Brands International, and Brinker, Chili's parent company, along with the pizza names, Domino's and Papa John's, faring better. The standout performer though, Dutch Bros, up 18% year to date. This of course, as Starbucks continues to try to stage a comeback. I spoke with TD's Andrew Charles, who said some key themes going into 2026 will be here. Number one, value offers continuing in fast food. Look no further than McDonald's for an example here, adding value assessments into its franchisee standards recently. Fast casual will also aim to win consumers back. We're seeing this already with Chipotle and its new protein and GLP-1 friendly menu ahead of the new year. Charles also predicts more specialty menu offerings to come. And then finally guys, loyalty programs in focus as they provide a lot of data and the ability to really target consumers with offers in this hyper competitive landscape. Back over to you. All right, Kate Rogers. Kate, thank you very much. Steve Grasso, any hot take on these restaurants? Yeah, I mean, if you're a value menu, we see them moving away from sweet greens where you have to pay 18 bucks or 20 bucks for a salad or something that you could probably make at home. But if you look at a Chili's, a Brinker's parent company, those are the ones that offer value menus and you have to stick with those. McDonald's didn't do as well, but I do like Darden. I do like Brinker's. I like things where you can get a value meal because with inflation, people are looking to save money than going out on a line where you have to spend $20 for a salad. I'll ask a bigger question. Is there any money to be made in restaurants at all? Like, is there a reason to own restaurant stocks? Stocks. Trading vehicles, absolutely. Well, McDonald's has been a great stock. I mean, it's been lower, left, upper, right. It's had some pullbacks along the way, but I think you can still own McDonald's. I will tell you, Shake Shack, we get approaching the April low. The stock has been cut in half since July, I think between 73 and 75, which is probably where it's going. I think that gets interesting in earnings. So these are trading vehicles and Shake Shack is the one that I'm gonna be looking at over the next couple of weeks for sure.

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