Brian McFeeters, Interim President & CEO of U.S.-ASEAN Business Council and former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia (2021-2023) shares his views about the Trump administration's latest deals with Southeast Asian countries and his take on Kuala Lumpur's rare earths agreement with Washington.

Washington

A new agreement between the United States and Malaysia focuses on rare earths supply, with provisions for certain product exemptions and ongoing negotiations expected. Malaysia, which has recently discovered more rare earth resources, is seen as an emerging player in the industry, supported by existing processing capabilities such as those operated by Australian company Lynas.

The deal is part of broader efforts to diversify the global supply chain for rare earths and semiconductors, reducing dependence on China. Malaysia continues to balance investments from both the U.S. and China, maintaining a neutral diplomatic stance. Details on the implementation of the agreement, particularly regarding trans-shipment and tariff regimes, are still under negotiation.

U.S.-Malaysia rare earths deal part of long game, says ex-ambassador

Our sense is that 19% as the headline figure is set and 20% for Vietnam. However, you see in the Malaysia agreement, it's not the full details, but you see in their clauses that say there's going to be provisions for certain products to be exempted. I think there's going to be a detailed set of negotiations or discussions after this that say, what about a product like, what about pure rubber from Thailand? The United States doesn't make rubber, so presumably pure rubber from Thailand could go into the United States tariff-free, would be the theory. Okay, let's talk about the Malaysia deal, because this seems to me, at least to me, to be the most interesting one of the four, actually. And that's because of one particular clause, and that is the export or the supply chain of rare earths to the United States. Now, you know, people might not know that Malaysia actually has rare earths in the country, and it seems that they've discovered a lot more in recent times. What does this do, not just for Malaysia, but for perhaps the rare earths industry in the world, that there might be a potential new player coming up, and that the United States has said, we recognize you, and in some ways we see you? You know, I'm not an expert on rare earths, but I've been hearing people talk about it, including our business association recently, and one of the points they make is rare earths are not actually that rare. It's a bit of a misnomer. It's the idea of having the whole kind of exploration, mining, and processing capacity. So Malaysia is entering into that game. In a sense, Malaysia is already in that game. There's an Australian company called Linus that processes rare earths here. It's actually raw material from Australia, but they have the processing capability here in Malaysia. So I think these are very interesting, but it's something that plays out over years rather than months from what people tell me. So the idea is, you know, maybe in a few years we can have a situation where China doesn't have a near monopoly on the processing of rare earths, and there's a much more diverse economy, including in the United States. I think the United States is trying to develop its own capacity. In Malaysia, in some sense, it's a very interesting economy because on two fronts, there is a potential to actually unlock more economic value. On one hand, they are trying to move up that semiconductor value chain, and now we have this possible rare earth play that is years away from being developed, but is now perhaps starting to roll. What kind of value might this unlock for Malaysia if they're able to at least accomplish these two seemingly gargantuan tasks and move up these new value chains? You know, Malaysia, you know, I served as ambassador here, and Malaysia is a big player in the semiconductor industry, but more on the kind of processing packaging downstream side rather than, you know, and there's always been a desire on the part of Malaysians to have, you know, have a fab to be developing semiconductors. This might be the beginning of that. On the other hand, you know, ASEAN is already a huge source of semiconductors for the U.S., so it's, you know, it's not starting from zero by any means. Okay, but the thing, too, is that while Malaysia is moving up this value chain, they've also began entertaining investments from other countries, specifically China, and this has become a bit delicate, actually negotiating between two countries. Malaysia's official stance, if I'm not mistaken, is we are open to everybody, we are going to stay neutral with regards, and we're going to be friends with both of you. Right. But because of the current jubilant climate, as the former ambassador, how much more difficult is this now to try to toe that line, I say, compared to the times when you were ambassador first? I mean, I think part of it depends on the overall big picture between the U.S. and China, and we've seen that on a bit of a roller coaster over the last few months. You know, there's going to be 100 percent tariffs, and now there's not going to be 100 percent tariffs. Rares from China are going to be completely shut down. Maybe now they're not, so I think that's point one. But then in terms of, you know, Malaysia and the other Southeast Asian countries, they're going to maintain a relationship with both. I mean, Malaysia is very clear on, you know, being sort of friends to both, open to both. So, you know, there's not going to be, nobody's going to stand up and say, like, we're no longer dealing with China, we're no longer dealing with the United States. So it's going to be, you know, kind of adjustments within the status quo, I think. But do you think it's becoming a little bit more tricky to do that right now, based on your experience as an ambassador? Yes, I mean, there's an aspect of these trade agreements that I don't think we fully know, but it's issues on, you know, how much do Southeast Asian nations need to watch out for products that come from China and are reprocessed and sent to the United States. There's going to be negotiations around that. We don't have the details yet, but Southeast Asia is kind of on notice that it has to watch, you know, the issue of trans-shipment is the term, basically. If something comes from China, can it go to the United States under the current tariff regime? That part's not clear.

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