From oil and arms to AI and chips, the Trump administration is reshaping its relations with Gulf states around business interests. But Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are hedging by deepening economic ties with China, raising questions about whether Washington can remain the region's dominant partner.

Beijing

The longstanding U.S. relationship with Gulf countries, once centered on security and military presence, has shifted under President Trump to emphasize business, technology, and major arms deals. Recent agreements include the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a major non-NATO ally designation, and record-breaking commercial deals with the UAE and Qatar.

Despite expanding economic and technological cooperation with the U.S., Gulf states are also strengthening partnerships with China in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology. Saudi officials have signaled that their investment interests are no longer exclusive to the U.S., raising questions about the future balance of influence in the region.

U.S. Gulf ties shift as China looms

For decades, the U.S. relationship with Gulf countries has been characterized by security guarantees, a large military presence, and occasional friction. But under President Trump, the focus has shifted to business, from oil production to major arms deals to A.I. and advanced chips investments. Trump's admiration of Gulf economies, and of course, their wealth, is clear. The whole world is watching the Middle East, and many are watching with envy. You have something very special going on. That business-first approach was on full display during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Washington, D.C. in November, when the U.S. agreed to sell the Kingdom F-35 fighter jets and name Saudi a major non-NATO ally. All while Riyadh continues to toe the line on Trump's push for lower oil prices. In May, the U.S. president secured about $200 billion in deals from the UAE and a record $96 billion Boeing order from Qatar. It's the largest order of jets in the history of Boeing. That's pretty good. At the heart of this agenda is America's crown jewel, technology. The Gulf's sovereign funds are investing heavily in A.I. as Trump pushes to export more U.S.-made ships to Gulf A.I. firms. But Saudi officials made clear their partnership is no longer exclusive. I'm happy to say, as a minister of investment, as excited as I am here in the U.S. about attracting American investment, I'm excited about attracting Chinese investment. Even as ties with Washington, D.C. expand, Gulf states are also deepening their relationship with China across energy, infrastructure, and tech in a push for more strategic autonomy. So as a more transactional American foreign policy unfolds and loyalties across the Gulf split, can the U.S. remain the region's top partner?

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Breakdown