U.S. allies preparing for potential return of Trump
U.S. allies are actively preparing for the possibility of former President Donald Trump's return to office after the next November elections. Given the outcomes of recent opinion polls in swing states, the scenario is considered an even chance. In anticipation, countries around the globe are taking measures to safeguard or enhance their interests. According to reports from diplomats and government officials across five continents, speaking to Reuters, these preparations are multifaceted and adapted to the unique concerns of each nation. Japan, recognizing the potential for renewed trade protectionism and increased financial demands for the maintenance of U.S. forces within its borders, is taking proactive steps. The nation plans to leverage the skills of Sunao Takao, a Harvard-educated interpreter, who had previously facilitated strong bonds between Trump and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, notably through golf. Japan's efforts to engage with the Trump camp include former Prime Minister Taro Aso's recent meeting with Trump in New York, where they discussed bilateral relations and other matters. Mexico is also strategizing, focusing on critical issues such as migration and the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S. Given Trump's previous statements about taking aggressive action against cartel leadership and infrastructure, Mexican officials are in talks with Trump’s affiliates to mitigate potential pressures. Furthermore, the possibility of Trump's election victory is influencing Mexico's consideration of candidates for the next foreign minister, underscoring the importance of personal relationships in diplomacy under Trump's administration. In Europe, Germany is engaging in what is described as bypass diplomacy, through the efforts of Michael Link, a transatlantic coordinator. This strategy aims at fortifying ties with Trump's Republican base at the state level, particularly in swing states where Germany has significant investments. The move is a response to previous threats of harsh tariffs on Germany’s automotive industry under Trump’s presidency. Australia is focused on securing a major defense agreement, fearing that Trump might reverse the deal. The Biden administration's commitment to assist Australia in developing a nuclear naval fleet, through the sale of three to five attack submarines, is seen as pivotal. To secure this deal, Australia’s U.S. ambassador, Kevin Rudd, is urging rapid action on relevant defense legislation, thereby making the agreement more resistant to any attempts by Trump to rescind it. This international mobilization reflects widespread uncertainty and concerns over U.S. foreign policy directions should Trump retake the presidency, highlighting the far-reaching implications of U.S. domestic politics on global diplomatic relations.