Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni is widely expected to win a presidential election on Thursday (January 15) but political observers are still paying attention to what the vote could tell us about succession.

Kampala

President Yoweri Museveni is widely expected to win Uganda's upcoming election, maintaining his decades-long hold on power. Despite this, the election is drawing attention due to the history of violence surrounding Ugandan polls and the potential for shifts in political succession.

Museveni's main challenger, Bobi Wine, has campaigned on restoring political freedoms and tackling corruption, while the government denies human rights abuses. Observers are also watching for signs of succession planning, as Museveni is believed to be preparing his son for leadership, a move that has sparked controversy within the ruling party.

Uganda election could be story of violence and succession

Political analysts say victory for Uganda's President Uweri Museveni is all but certain in Thursday's election. That's because of his stranglehold on Ugandan institutions after four decades in power. But the vote could nevertheless have important implications for the East African country's future. Eighty-one-year-old Museveni is aiming for a seventh term in office. His main challenger is 43-year-old Bobby Wynne, a pop star-turned-politician who is popular with younger voters. Other notable candidates are former parliamentary opposition leader Nandala Mfabi and ex-military chief Mugisha Muntu. Museveni has touted a record of relative peace and stability. He says he wants Uganda to become a middle-income country through manufacturing, agricultural exports and the start of oil production expected later this year. Wynne has accused Museveni of 40 years of dictatorship and campaigned on restoring political freedoms. The government has denied allegations of widespread human rights abuses. Wynne has also vowed to tackle corruption, bolster youth employment and review agreements with international oil firms. Successive Ugandan elections have been marred by violence and crackdowns on government opponents. Security forces killed more than 50 people before the last election in 2021. That was amid protests triggered by Wynne's arrest. Hundreds of opposition supporters have been detained in the run-up to this year's vote and at least one killed. While there may be little suspense with regard to the outcome, political observers will still be watching this election. And that's for what it says about succession. Museveni is widely thought to be lining up his son, military chief Mahusi Kanirugaba, for the top job. But that's a source of controversy within Museveni's NRM party. Other NRM heavyweights are also positioning themselves for Museveni's eventual departure. One important metric will be Museveni's margin of victory this time around. In 2021, he registered his lowest score in a presidential election with 58 per cent of the vote. Analysts say any further slippage could weaken his political standing before a possible succession battle.

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Breakdown