Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are seen as having a good rapport, which Erdogan hopes will result in a green light from the US for a key weapons deal. But he's less likely to move Trump on pressuring Israel to end its war in Gaza.

Istanbul

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured a meeting with Donald Trump at the White House, his first such visit since 2019. The visit is seen as significant for Erdogan, who was not hosted by President Joe Biden and seeks to reestablish strong ties with the United States. Under Trump, Turkey has benefited from favorable tariffs and the lifting of some sanctions, while Trump has shown less concern for Turkey's domestic political situation.

Key topics for the meeting include military and trade agreements, such as Turkey's potential purchase of Boeing airliners and the ongoing dispute over F-35 fighter jets. However, major differences remain, particularly regarding Israel's war in Gaza, where Erdogan has been a vocal critic of Israel and maintains support for Hamas. The outcome of the meeting is uncertain, but it will test the relationship between the two leaders.

Trump to host Turkey's President Erdogan at the White House

Well, I have great relations with a man named Erdogan. Have you heard of him? And I happen to like him and he likes me. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured a meeting with Donald Trump at the White House. He was last there in 2019 during Trump's first term, and their relationship has often been dubbed a bromance. So what can we expect? And what is Erdogan hoping to achieve? The optics of this visit are very, very important. For both leaders, but primarily for President Erdogan, this is his return to the White House after four years of being shunned. It is his declaration that he's back in terms of being taken seriously by the United States. Erdogan was never hosted at the White House by President Joe Biden. Ties were frosty. But under Trump, Ankara has recently had a string of wins. On tariffs, Turkey has secured a better position than many U.S. allies. Washington has lifted many sanctions on Syria, as Erdogan wanted. And Trump has turned a blind eye to Erdogan's ongoing crackdown on Turkey's opposition. President Trump is also not interested in looking at the world through the prism of democracy versus autocracy. So he's more tolerant, in fact, uninterested in issues like Turkey's democratic backsliding that has pretty much formed the Biden administration's approach to Turkey. Ahead of Erdogan's visit, Trump said on his social media the two would discuss a number of military and trade deals, like a large-scale purchase of Boeing airliners by Turkey. This would help Erdogan to strengthen the national flag carrier Turkish Airlines and further establish Istanbul as a global aviation hub. But it's not all bromance. U.S.-Turkey ties also face some serious challenges. One of the big ones is a long-running dispute between the two NATO allies over fighter jets. Turkey angered the Trump administration in 2019 by buying Russian S-400 air defense systems, prompting Washington to cancel a planned F-35 fighter jet sale and remove Ankara from the program's joint production line. Erdogan wants to use the meeting to negotiate a deal. And Trump has said that he expects the F-35 talks, quote, to conclude positively. What Trump does is usually speak positively. So I expect that rhetorically he will support sale of F-35s to Turkey and maybe say we'll look into that. Why not? I'm going to work on it. This is huge leverage for him. But of course, this also depends on U.S. Congress. But what could prove harder to resolve are differences between Trump and Erdogan over Israel's war in Gaza. The U.S. is Israel's closest ally, while Erdogan is one of its fiercest critics. He has likened Prime Minister Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, officially cut trade relations and asked to join a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. We must ensure that the genocide crew is held accountable under international law. God willing, this will undoubtedly happen. Erdogan also hosts Hamas delegations and supports the militant group, which unlike other countries he does not view as a terrorist organization, but as a resistance group. So how are Erdogan and Trump going to handle this issue? I think they will inevitably get to Israel. They cannot avoid this topic. They might end up having more of a public discussion in front of the cameras than they would like. It may work for both leaders, may mean something or may not mean something. So it's very hard to tell with President Trump. While any concrete results from the Trump-Erdogan meeting are difficult to predict, it will put their so-called bromance to the test.

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Breakdown