The North Carolina Outer Banks is under tropical storm watches with the risk of coastal flooding and rough surf from nearby Hurricane Erin as the storm continues to track northward this week.

Outer Banks

Hurricane Erin is moving northward off the U.S. east coast, with meteorologists closely monitoring its proximity to land. While a direct landfall is not expected, the storm's expanding wind field is projected to bring tropical storm force winds, significant storm surge, and rough surf to coastal areas, particularly from North Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula.

Forecast models indicate the possibility of the storm tracking slightly further west, which could increase impacts along the coast. Authorities are warning of storm surge between three to six feet and wind gusts up to 80 miles per hour in some areas, along with the risk of coastal erosion and rough surf up and down the eastern seaboard.

Tracking Hurricane Erin's threat across U.S. East Coast

Yesterday you and I and the AccuWeather team started clearing areas. We cleared from direct impacts, rain and wind, from Charleston all the way down across all of Florida, but we've decided it's a little too early to clear anybody else for now, John. Right, we considered across parts of the northeast, but it's a little bit too early given the track of the storm. Still concerned that any further movement to the west of the storm track can result in more rain and wind impacts along the U.S. east coast. Of course, the greatest concern we have along that is along the outer banks up to parts of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva as well, but can't let your guard down right along the coast across the mid-Atlantic and the northeast as well as the storm is going to be passing out to sea, but it's very close in terms of rain and wind impacts there. You know it was last week you and I, I think I talked to you more than my wife, and that's probably a problem too, and I could say the other way around, is that we knew that this was going to happen early in the week, that the jet stream coming south that would kind of accelerate air in northward would be lifting, and what you're left with is the Bermuda high south and east of the islands producing a weaker flow. Yeah, that's the setup that our hurricane experts saw last week in the sense that you're just dealing with weaker flow around this area of high pressure east of Bermuda, because the stronger steering winds were displaced up to the north, so now it's kind of waiting for the next jet stream disturbance to start driving the storm more to the north and northeast, and that's going to happen. We're not concerned about a U.S. east coast landfall, it's just how close can the storm get to the coast, and the other problem is we've been talking about here at AccuWeather is that the wind field of the storm is expanding, it's growing larger as it moves to the north, which is typical, and so that means those tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, are going to get right to the North Carolina coast. Yeah, because we're thinking about maybe 230 miles west of the storm center as it passes to the east of the Outer Banks, and right now, John, you know, talking with our hurricane experts and what I've seen, we are projecting about 175 miles to 225 miles east of Cape Hatteras. Right, so that's why there's going to be tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts to the coast, and a significant storm surge, too, that we're concerned about. The other issue that we've been looking at here, here at AccuWeather, we use 190 forecast models, that's what our experts look at and analyze in great detail, and several of those forecast tools, those forecast guidance tools that we use, have a track further west of our current track, so that's why we're concerned that there can be, and we've been talking about this, a bit of an adjustment to the west, which means that more impacts get back to the coast from North Carolina up to southeast Virginia and the Delmarva, and those northeast winds are going to result in some storm surge concerns there, as well as huge waves, too. And that's why we've always, always, always have had that northwest track brushing the outer banks of North Carolina. That's right. All right, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thanks for joining us here. Let me go over some of the impacts here moving forward with Aaron as it takes that track. The seas are going to be rough and tough. Look at that sea area just lifting north over the next couple of days here. There'll be problems up and down the eastern seaboard with rough surf rip currents, and there's going to be some coastal damage, I think, at times, or at least some coastal erosion during times of high tide up and down the eastern seaboard here. Now, the winds are going to be strong, but also gusty winds here and there, but it's the storm surge. We're worried about that from Cape Lookout all the way north toward Cape Hatteras, a little north of there as well, where we have a storm surge of three to six feet. That's going to cause some damage, no doubt about that. Wind gusts right now 40 to 60 miles per hour. We have an AccuWeather local storm actually took that to 80 miles per hour. Again, there is still room for Aaron to come a little farther to the west before we get that turn, and again, that's why we're concerned about those impacts.

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Jerusalem

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Breakdown