Name: Tariff relief hinges on U.S. midterm election results, expert warns
Uploaded: 2025-12-26T05:07:56.955Z
Duration: 3 min 58 s
Description: Steven Okun, CEO of APAC Advisors, outlines why he believes a U.S. trade deal with India and China is on the cards in 2026 — and explains how the U.S. midterm elections will be a key sticking point for tariff relief.

Steven Okun, CEO of APAC Advisors, outlines why he believes a U.S. trade deal with India and China is on the cards in 2026 — and explains how the U.S. midterm elections will be a key sticking point for tariff relief.

Washington

A trade expert has indicated that the outcome of U.S. midterm elections will play a significant role in determining whether tariffs on goods from India and China are reduced. The discussion highlights that Republicans, facing potential losses, may seek to ease tariffs to address affordability issues and improve their electoral prospects.

The expert noted that while trade deals with India and China could help lower prices for American consumers, such moves may be seen as political compromises. Recent statements from U.S. officials and the timing of tariff decisions suggest that economic and electoral considerations are closely linked in shaping trade policy.

Tariff relief hinges on U.S. midterm election results, expert warns

I think the confidence comes from the fact that the midterms in the U.S. are going to drive a lot of economics in this coming year. And right now, the Republicans are on track to get walloped and to get hit with a blue wave in the midterms, just like they did in Donald Trump's first term when they lost 41 seats. Trump is going to do, and the Republicans will do what they can to mitigate that. You see that with the redistricting that they're pushing very hard. You're also going to see it, I think, in a reduction in certain tariffs to try and address that affordability issue. India is low-hanging fruit to reduce tariffs and to address the affordability issue because tariffs are 50 percent, higher than almost anywhere else. How much is the impact of the tariffs on, of the India tariffs on affordability in the U.S.? And how much does that really impact Trump's core vote base? Look, affordability affects everything right now. He can deny all that he wants. His approval rating is 36 percent. This is historically low. It's like what we call Joe Biden territory, right? And so he has to do something. He is going to get pressure from the Republicans in the House as well. And so is India going to win the midterms for the administration? Of course not. But it's just every little bit that's going to count. And sure, if you look at the textiles and the things that people buy every day, clothing that they buy every day, that's going to be a difference. China is going to be, of course, the biggest difference of all. And that's where I think you look to see the biggest trade deal. Not a reset, but you are going to likely see a trade deal between the U.S. and China and between the U.S. and India in 2026. And I think sooner in the year because you have to let that run through, run through pricing to get that help in the midterms. So I can understand that the idea of a trade deal with China is a compromise economics determines or desires at this point in time ahead of the midterm elections. If you don't have that, the prices will be high. Affordability will become a problem. The Republicans will lose. But if they strike that deal with China, they're already compromising. And if they also do it with India, they would be compromising a little bit further. And that could have the opposite effect in a midterm election where anyone who was voting for the Republicans and Donald Trump because of these strict tariff measures, they would be like, hey, he's actually, you know, he's compromised. So he's not as strong as we thought he was. So now I won't vote for him. No, you vote on the economy. You don't vote on being tough on China. You don't vote certainly on being tough on India and the United States. The economy is the number one issue, and that is what is going to drive a lot of foreign policy to the extent that it impacts the economy. And you just have to look at it and see the words that are being used by Secretary Rubio. I mean, Secretary Rubio in his confirmation hearing called called China the most potent and dangerous near peer adversary this nation has ever confronted. This month, he says it is our job to find opportunities to work together with the Chinese Communist Party. Now, why did he did he have a road to Damascus moment right in December? I really don't think so. I think, like everybody else, to understand where Trump is going, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Trump wants a deal. The Republicans in the House want a deal. We are going to likely see a deal with China. And Secretary Rubio is one tea leaf to show that you saw what happened with semiconductors. Even though the U.S. says that China is competing unfairly on semiconductors, they punted any raise in tariffs to 2027. Why did they pick 2027 and not 2026? Again, you don't need to be a weatherman here.

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