AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses upcoming trouble in the tropics.

AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva reports that a developing storm system is expected to move across Florida and enter the Gulf of Mexico, where warm water temperatures could allow it to strengthen. While wind shear is likely to prevent the system from becoming a hurricane, it may intensify into a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching Louisiana.

The main concern is the potential for the system to stall over Louisiana, leading to significant rainfall and flash flooding. AccuWeather has assigned an Impact Scale rating of one for Louisiana, with forecasts indicating four to eight inches of rain and the possibility of even higher amounts west of New Orleans if the system slows down further.

Storm may strengthen over Gulf this week

I want to bring in AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. You know, Alex, yesterday you and the team had your hands full because you decided, hey listen, we think this is at least going to be a tropical rainstorm. There's going to be a center of circulation and we're going to track an I-path and much of the guidance didn't even have a center of circulation yet, but our I-path that we issued yesterday pretty much held true so far today as well. Yeah, it certainly did and like you mentioned it, the storm has certainly gotten a lot better organized here over the last, you know, 12 hours or so and I think if it had an additional 6 to 12 hours you might even have a name east of Florida, but it's going to run out of time. It's going to move into Florida here over the next couple of hours bringing rain all the way across the peninsula, but you can see how tight of a circulation it is just missing those thunderstorms on the northern side. If it had that, I think we would be dealing with a named tropical system, but nevertheless we'll be tracking this across Florida during the day today. It's going to emerge back over the gulf I think sometime tonight and then it's got about 24 to 36 hours over those warm gulf waters where if that circulation is able to survive the journey across the peninsula, that's where there could be a concern that this could ramp up to a tropical storm. You know, it is concerning that it's over the Gulf of America for that long, 36 hours, and the concerning thing as you mentioned, it's not just warm water, but water temperatures are running well above the historical average. Yeah, they certainly are. You need about 80 degrees Fahrenheit water temperatures or so for tropical systems to survive and thrive and we're well above that. We're in the middle 80s, one to two degrees above average for this time of the year, so plenty of fuel to work with and it's deep warm water as well, so that is really the concern. If that circulation, and that's the big question mark, if that circulation is able to survive that journey across the state of Florida, we could be looking at a storm that could try to intensify once it gets into the gulf. Now, the limiting factor appears to us to be wind shear. That's stronger winds coming in out, in this case, out of the east northeast here. Now, we have that area marked, it's along the southern side of an area of upper high pressure, high pressure in the upper atmosphere that's moving eastward, so it's like the moderate wind shear, but as you and I always talk about, it's just not the strength of the wind shear, it's the direction. Yeah, it certainly is. If the direction of the wind shear is moving opposite to the storm, it really disrupts the storm and then we probably wouldn't have development at all, but this wind shear is going to be moving at the back of the tropical system. It's essentially going to be hitting it in the back, so while it's going to disrupt it a little bit, and this is why we don't think it's going to become a hurricane, it's probably going to be low enough that the storm can still intensify at least into a tropical depression, which is what we are currently forecasting to then move into Louisiana sometime Thursday morning. Now, the other concern we have is that this can stall, and if this stalls across Louisiana over the weekend, we could be looking at a major headache here. In fact, on the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale, while this isn't forecasted to be even a tropical storm, we're going to have an AccuWeather Impact Scale of this as a one in Louisiana because we're so concerned about the flash flood potential with this. Yeah, absolutely. We are watching this trek westward, and that's being pushed by the Bermuda High right now, so right now it's going to move across Florida. It's not going to stall over Florida, but then what happens as it approaches Louisiana, it starts to stop, or it stops feeling that influence from that Bermuda High, and what can happen is the storm can drastically slow down. It might not stop, but we're still expecting it to slow down, and then that can lead to big flooding issues. Right now, we have a pretty large swath of four to eight inches from Baton Rouge to New Orleans, but my concern in looking at more data suggests that there's a greater chance of this starting to stall as it gets close, and that would mean that we would potentially need to put on a higher rainfall amount on this map. I think the best chance for that would likely be just west of New Orleans, but there could be areas west of New Orleans that could see a foot of rain. Accu, with the lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva, thanks for joining us here.

Fighting has erupted in the southern Syrian city of As Suwayda just six hours after a ceasefire was announced. Earlier on Tuesday, Syrian government forces withdrew heavy vehicles from the city, hoping to ease tensions.

As Suwayda

Fighting erupts in Syria’s As Suwayda hours after ceasefire deal

Two laptops and hard drives containing watermarked and unreleased music by Beyoncé were stolen from her choreographer’s rental car in Atlanta, according to police.

Atlanta

Unreleased Beyoncé music stolen from choreographer’s rental car

The House Committee on Education and Workforce is holding its ninth hearing in 18 months on antisemitism on college campuses. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul has more details.

Washington

Anger at House committee hearing on antisemitism in college campuses

An Air India Boeing airplane crashed in northwestern India in June, killing all people on board but one passenger. India's aviation regulator has now ordered airlines to examine fuel control switches on several Boeing models.

New Delhi

India orders airlines to inspect Boeing airplane models after crash

Controversy on Capitol Hill over the so-called Epstein Files is seemingly not going away anytime soon.

House Republicans block Democratic push to release Epstein documents

An Israeli scheme to move hundreds of thousands of already uprooted Palestinians to a so-called "humanitarian city" in Gaza has led politicians to spar with the defense establishment. Critics inside and outside Israel have denounced the proposal.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Critics slam Israeli scheme to move Gazans to 'humanitarian city'

At least two people were killed in a New Jersey flash flooding event, Gov. Phil Murphy said Tuesday morning as heavy rains are expected to continue battering the Northeast. CBS News' Rob Marciano has more details.

New Jersey

Two killed in New Jersey flash flooding

After over a week of negotiations in Doha, a truce in Gaza remains elusive, despite intensified efforts by mediators. The stalemate continues as both Hamas and Israel trade blame over ongoing strikes.

Doha

Gaza truce still out of reach after Doha talks

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for President Donald Trump's administration to resume dismantling the Department of Education, part of his bid to shrink the federal government's role in education in favor of more control by the states.

U.S. Supreme Court clears way for Trump to gut Education Department

Syria's government troops entered the Sweida region following deadly clashes on Tuesday, while Israel carried out strikes against them, saying it was acting to protect the Druze minority.

Syrian forces enter Sweida city following deadly clashes

Heavy rains slammed the Northeast and caused flash floods in the New York City subway system. CBS News' Rob Marciano has the latest.

New York

Flash flooding pummels NYC and slams subway lines

US President Donald Trump told Russia to end its war in Ukraine within 50 days or face massive new economic sanctions, as he laid out plans for infusions of weaponry for Kyiv via NATO. "We're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100 percent," Trump said.

Global Tariffs

Trump gives Moscow 50-day ultimatum over Ukraine war

A Gaza-bound boat carrying pro-Palestinian activists and humanitarian aid left Sicily, over a month after Israel detained and deported people aboard a previous vessel.

Sicily

New Gaza-bound aid boat leaves Italy

The U.S. will manufacture more weapons to help Ukraine in its fight against Russia's invasion. President Trump said European nations will be footing the bill.

Ukraine Invasion

U.S. to send more weapons to Ukraine

Christian leaders have accused Israeli settlers of attacking sacred sites in the West Bank. The Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Jerusalem, Theophilos III - visiting the Christian town of Taybeh with other clerics - said settlers had started a fire near a cemetery and a 5th century church there last week.

Clerics accuse West Bank settlers of attacking Christian sites

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Beijing ahead of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He's there to broaden economic cooperation with China, which is Australia's top trade partner, while taking into account security concerns.

Beijing

Australia's Albanese pushes Aussie exports in China visit

In an Oval Office meeting, President Trump announced that the US will sell weapons to European nations, who will then send them to Ukraine. The president also threatened new trade consequences if no peace deal is reached with Ukraine within 50 days.

Trump gives Russia new deadline for Ukraine peace deal

Astronauts from India, Poland, Hungary and the U.S. are returning from the International Space Station following the historic Axiom Mission 4 trip. CBS News' consultant Bill Harwood joins with more details.

Cape Canaveral

Axiom Mission 4 crew returns from historic trip to I.S.S.

Hundreds of Palestinians on Sunday (July 13) mourned two men who were killed in overnight clashes by settlers in the West Bank. One of the deceased is 20-year-old Sayafollah Musallet, a U.S. citizen.

Mourners bury U.S. citizen killed in West Bank settler attack

Search efforts resumed for the more than 160 people still missing from the deadly July 4 floods in Central Texas after being halted Sunday morning due to renewed flood threats. CBS News' Karen Hua has the latest.

Kerrville

Heavy rains halt recovery efforts in central Texas

Following his recent criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Trump, for the first time since he took office in January, is also considering authorizing new funding for Ukraine.

Trump considers new funding for Ukraine

Two women were killed and two people were injured in a church shooting in Lexington, Kentucky, after the suspect initially shot a state trooper, police said. CBS News correspondent Nicole Valdes has the latest.

Lexington

Two women killed in Kentucky church shooting

The European Union said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up his trade war on the bloc.

Brussels

EU holds off on U.S. tariff countermeasures for now to pursue talks

One year ago, Thomas Crooks, a recent community college graduate, opened fire on then-candidate Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. A year later, there's still no answers to why Crooks did it. Scott MacFarlane reports.

Butler

Motive still a mystery a year after Trump assassination attempt

Several European leaders and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have expressed disappointment at the 30% tariffs US President Donald Trump has announced, but maintained openness to reach a negotiated solution.

Leaders of EU and Mexico slam Trump's 30% tariffs

A preliminary report depicted confusion in the cockpit shortly before an Air India jetliner crashed and killed 260 people last month, after the plane's engine fuel cutoff switches flipped almost simultaneously and starved the engines of fuel.

Ahmedabad

Air India crash report shows pilot confusion over fuel cutoff

Iran’s foreign minister says his country is ready to resume nuclear talks with the United States but will need assurances that there will be no more attacks against it. Abbas Araghchi made the comments on Saturday, during a meeting with foreign diplomats in Tehran.

Tehran

Iran willing to resume nuclear talks with U.S. if given assurances

Australia will not commit troops in advance to any conflict, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said on Sunday (July 13), responding to a report that the Pentagon has pressed its ally to clarify what role it would play if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan.

Council of the City of Sydney

Australia to 'support status quo' on Taiwan amid U.S. defense push

The Pentagon is urging Japan and Australia to clarify what role they would play if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan, the Financial Times is reporting. According to the newspaper, the reported request caught Japan and Australia 'off-guard'.

Taipei

Australia caught 'off guard' by U.S demands over Taiwan

A federal judge in California temporarily halted the Trump administration from making indiscriminate arrests based on race and denying detainees access to lawyers.

Breakdown