In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the snow potential for the Northeast.

Forecasters are tracking a significant shift to colder weather across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic regions, with up to three potential storm systems over the coming weeks. The first system, expected around New Year's, will mainly affect areas west of the Appalachians, bringing light snow to the Midwest and Northeast, while the I-95 corridor is likely to remain unaffected.

Heavy snowfall is forecast for areas south of Watertown and Buffalo, but most other regions will see only a coating to a couple of inches. Additional storm threats are possible late next week and again in mid-January, though current models suggest these systems may move out to sea unless upper-level patterns shift, which could bring more significant snow to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Snow potential for mid-Atlantic and Northeast

After a warm Christmas week for many, what a different week we have this week. Cold is king this week from the lakes toward the northeast, and there will be the potential for two storms, actually three. We have our Arctic boundary, Wednesday night, Thursday, I don't think that's a big deal. Next week, Thursday, Friday, and then a week from now, you have another threat, mid-Atlantic and northeast. I want to show you the pattern that we're going to be dealing with here as we go in the mid-January here, and what you see is it's just been incredible cold across here, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon Territory. Now it's not as cold as it was, but what's going to end up happening is you're going to see episodes of cold air coming south and east, and then you're going to have a storm track coming in here as such, or a storm track along the coast. But with the cold air getting locked in, of course, that means you're going to have opportunities for some snow moving forward here. Now opportunities doesn't mean you're going to get it, but I do want to show you about the three opportunities for snow from the lakes toward the northeast and then the mid-Atlantic to the northeast. I talked about this last week, the Arctic boundary that's coming south as we move toward Wednesday into Thursday. This is the upper air on Tuesday, and here it is. What you're going to see is this energy here going across northern Saskatchewan that's going to come southeast. As we get into Wednesday, watch it come southeast. Last week we talked about, well, if this trough could dig a little more and come like this, then we can get more widespread snows across the Midwest and northeast. However, however, this doesn't look like this trough is going to dig far enough. You see it, watch, it's just coming across. You see how it just comes right through the northeast? The GFS, that's the European, GFS, European, same way. This is Thursday night into Friday morning, and when you look at the surface map, watch, you're not going to see much snow here. You see, here it is, it begins New Year's Eve in here across Minnesota. Watch it just come across the Midwest, there it is Wednesday night, and then in the parts of the northeast and Appalachians as we get into New Year's Day. And because the trough's not deep enough, this snow will not get east of the Appalachians, so this is not going to be a threat for the I-95 corridor at all. This is the area that you're going to see the snow, and it's not going to be a lot, as I mentioned. It's generally going to be a coating to an inch or two here, right in there. Now, over the next, this week, the one area that's going to get slammed is in the lakes. South of Watertown, south of Buffalo, there's going to be feet of snow. But outside of the lakes, we have a general coating to an inch or two, and that's it from this storm. This will be Wednesday night, this will end up being Thursday, and then Thursday, Thursday night across New England. Not a big snow, could be a disruptive snow, and then there's a real shot of some very cold air then coming in behind the system. Now, I want to take you forward then. Then I think for the most part it's going to be cold and dry as we get into early next week. But I do think there's an opportunity along the mid-Atlantic and northeast Thursday and Friday of next week. Let me show you why as I show you the upper air map here. So again, we're going to go forward here. Again, rounds of cold. It's going to stay cold across the northeast and the midwest. But this is the setup. There's Tuesday. I want to show you this. Here's the setup as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. First of all, you have this upper low, south of James, south of Hudson Bay. That continues to send colder air down. As much as we get into Thursday, we're going to zone in on this. Southern branch of the jet stream, that's going to eject this piece out. The northern branch sends in the cold. The southern branch sends the storm. Now watch. As we get into Thursday, right here. Okay. So Thursday, Thursday night, here's the cold air. So this delivers the cold air. This is the storm. Now, it's not the right setup right now because what's happening is, is this piece of energy which will end up being the surface storm, will be driven out to sea, not up the coast. And you can see why as I get into Friday morning. See right in here. This trough is a little too far east. So this storm that forms is driven out to sea. Let me show you the surface map. You can see it as we get into Thursday. See here's the storm as we get into Thursday, right in here. At the upper level, the way the trough is situated, it keeps it separate from the cold air and moves it out to sea. See right in here. Out to sea, virtually no snow with it. However, let's keep an eye on this because, let me go back to this, I'm going to stop it right here. This is Friday morning. Now, if this piece of energy right here coming across Manitoba and into the Dakotas, if this is a little farther west that pushes this trough instead of like this, let's say the trough is a little more digging, more like this, then instead of this storm going out to sea, it comes up the coast with plenty of snow. Let me show you the surface map. So the surface map is taking this storm out to sea. But if this trough is a little farther west, then this storm would come up northward like this. And then you could be looking at a snowstorm across parts of mid-Atlantic and northeast. Now, the modeling doesn't show that right now, but we're going to keep an eye on that. One last thing. Then as we get into the first full week, the first full week of January, I want to show you the upper air map here quickly. Right in here. Now, this is interesting. As we get into Monday and Tuesday, your trough is back here. You got a storm trying to come north. Europeans suggest it's too warm, but watch. You've got the possibility of a snow and ice event from the Midwest into the Northeast as we get to the 12th and 13th of January. So that's early next week, a week from now. Actually, no, two weeks from now, the 12th and 13th. So again, we're going to keep an eye on things as we get into Thursday and Friday, as we get into next week. And then let's keep an eye on the week after. Stay with us.

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