With El Nino weakening, AccuWeather's lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, says the next few weeks are likely to be a lot more active with severe weather in the middle of the country.

Title: Severe Weather Expected to Increase with El Nino Weakening, Predicts AccuWeather

AccuWeather's lead long-range forecast expert, Paul Pastelok, has indicated that the upcoming weeks are set to experience an uptick in severe weather conditions across the middle of the country. This forecast comes as El Nino, a significant influencer of global weather patterns, begins to weaken. Historically, El Nino conditions have been associated with a decrease in tornado activity during the spring months, which includes March and April. Despite public perception that this year has seen an above-average number of tornadoes, the count remains below the historical average, with 347 tornadoes reported so far.

Pastelok elaborated on the factors contributing to the expected increase in severe weather. He highlighted that, typically, El Nino suppresses the formation of conditions conducive to severe weather, such as preventing the development of higher pressure off the southeast coast which brings moist air from the Caribbean and the western Gulf into the plains. However, with El Nino's influence waning, these conditions are now becoming more favorable for severe weather events, including tornadoes.

Furthermore, Paul Pastelok pointed out the importance of water temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean as a key to long-range weather forecasting. The pattern of water temperatures, with warmer waters in the north-central Pacific and cooler waters in the northeast, creates a favorable route for upper-level disturbances. These disturbances, when combined with moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean, set the stage for an active severe weather pattern towards the end of April and into the first half of May.

The AccuWeather expert foresees a convergence of these factors over Tornado Alley, predicting a significant increase in tornadic activity and other severe weather events leading up to Mother's Day. Although the latter part of May might see a slight decrease in activity in the plain states, the potential for severe weather, including stronger cold fronts, could shift toward the mid-Atlantic, suggesting a broader impact area than initially anticipated.



Severe weather to ramp up as April comes to an end

All right, joining me right now is AccuWeather lead long range forecast meteorologist Paul Passuk. You know, Paul, we issued the spring forecast months ago and one of the things we talked about was tornado production and you and I were looking at the numbers. I think if you ask most people what kind of year it's been for tornadoes, they would suggest it's been above the historical average. They would be wrong. It's actually below and that's not surprising to you. Yeah, because the fact that, you know, most people relate tornado season in the March, April, May time period and March and April hasn't been that extensive in the tornado department. We've had severe weather and we've had events, but the El Nino that was upon us here that's weakening quickly has had some influence on that matter and has held back the tornadic activity and if you look back historical averages, usually you don't get a lot of tornadoes in El Nino Springs, but since it's weakening, things are going to start to change. You can see the averages here so far this year. 347 is not that bad, which is good news, but we've had other kind of events. Hail has been a one of the main things that has happened, but again El Nino has held down higher pressure from developing off the southeast coast that pumps up that really juicy air out of the Caribbean and western gulf. We haven't had that yet, but that is starting to come to a change. You know, one of the things you've always told me you look at that is one of your keys to a long-range forecast, and especially this year, are water temperatures anomalies. I have them here in the Pacific, Paul. Explain to our viewers why that's important and what do you see? Well, Bernie, just a little while ago you explained one ingredient that you need, the moist air coming into the plain states, but you also need some upper level disturbances to come in pretty strong in the west coast and then go through the Rockies into the plains, and I think a lot of times we can discover those paths and watch that development based on water temperatures. You have a warm body of water north in the north central pacific, but cooler waters in the northeast, and that's kind of a travel zone right in between for these disturbances, which is going to make the pattern active for the end of April into the first half of May. Yeah, and I know that's something you're really concerned about. You could see the anomalies here, how you have that cooler water off the west coast. Let's really quickly talk, Paul, talk about this graphic late April into mid May. Yeah, for the first couple of weeks in May, even the end of April here, we're going to be talking about a lot of energy going into the middle of the nation along with warm moist air coming out of the southwest, Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean, you know, all meeting up in the plains right over Tornado Alley, and I think this is going to be an active period for the next three weeks coming up for the middle of the nation. We're going to start to see higher pressure on the east coast helping to pump that moisture up, and you can see by the gesture we just talked about coming out of the northeast Pacific, all meeting up right in the middle of the nation, just a pretty good setup here for tornadic activity and several events up leading up to Mother's Day. Really quickly, Paul, in about 10 seconds, the late part of May start to trend down a little? A little bit in the plain states especially, more leveling off of the jet stream. Still could see a little bit more action farther east. We may see some stronger cold fronts get to the mid-Atlantic. That's where you may see more severe weather. AccuWeather lead, long-range expert meteorologist Paul Pasilak. Paul, thanks for joining us.

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