Name: Polymarket bettor wins $400,000 on Maduros capture, raising eyebrows
Uploaded: 2026-01-06T23:20:47.765Z
Duration: 3 min 25 s
Description: Just hours before news broke of the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, an anonymous user placed a bet that Maduro would be out of power in Venezuela by the end of the month. The bet paid out more than $400,000.=

Just hours before news broke of the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, an anonymous user placed a bet that Maduro would be out of power in Venezuela by the end of the month. The bet paid out more than $400,000.=

New York

The U.S has launched strikes on sites inside Venezuela, including military facilities and arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro along wife his wife.

Venezuela Strikes

An anonymous bettor on the prediction market Polymarket won more than $400,000 after wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power, placing the bet just hours before a U.S. military operation led to Maduro's capture. The timing of the $32,000 bet has prompted scrutiny from experts and regulators, who are concerned about the possible use of insider information and the implications for national security.

Polymarket and similar platforms have grown in popularity, allowing users to bet on a range of topics, including sensitive geopolitical events. While the identity of the bettor remains unknown due to the platform's anonymity, regulatory agencies have not commented on the incident, and the FBI has declined to confirm or deny any investigation.

Polymarket bettor wins $400,000 on Maduro's capture, raising eyebrows

A more than $400,000 mystery has been uncovered following the capture of deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before news broke of the military operation and anonymous user on the prediction market places significant bet that Maduro would be out of power by the end of the month. The perfectly timed wager is raising questions about possible insider knowledge with national security implications. Senior business and technology correspondent Jolene Kent has a story. The night before the US military captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, somebody somewhere placed an extremely well timed bet. An anonymous user on the prediction market site Polly Market, where users can wager on nearly any topic, bet $32,000 that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by January 31st. The following morning at 425 AM Eastern, the president announced Maduro was in custody and that user cashed out making more than $400,000. These markets are the wildest of the Wild West lawyer. Dennis Kelleher focuses on regulation of securities and financial markets. He's the president of better markets. What evidence is there that this was non public information being used to make this bet? The fact the facts are not known publicly. The fact the facts are not known publicly yet. However, this particular trade really has all the hallmarks of an insider trade, Polly Market and its competitors like Kelsey have recently exploded in popularity. Millions of users place bets on current events, pop culture and now national security issues. If this was insider information, it means that somebody used the most highly classified confidential military secrets and information of the United States. To place a bet actually putting the entire operation potentially at risk. Polly Market did not respond to our multiple requests for comment last year before it gained regulatory approval in the US and well before Maduro was captured. Polly Market CEO Shane Copeland sat down with 60 minutes, but predictive markets do rely on someone having some inside information. Yeah, I think that people are going and having an edge to the market is a good thing. Obviously you need to curate them and you need to be really clear and stringent on where the line is drawn and like sort of ethics and we spend a lot of time on that. In the meantime, users can already bet on the next US military operation. Polly Market offers markets on another US strike on Venezuela, meaning there's money to be made by those in the know. That this is a story and a real problem because it happens to involve highly, highly classified information. The big question is who placed this bet, and unless the better comes forward, experts tell us because Polly Market is an anonymous platform, you could deduce who it might be, but there isn't a way to 100% prove who the account belongs to. Now the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets did not respond to our multiple requests for comment, and the FBI said it quote declines to confirm or deny the existence of any investigation. Jolene Kent, CBS News, Los Angeles.

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Polymarket bettor wins $400,000 on Maduro's capture, raising eyebrows

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Venezuela Strikes