A new Polish report finds that social media posts blaming Ukraine for a recent drone incursion were driven by a coordinated disinformation campaign. Researchers stress the claims do not reflect public opinion in Poland, warning of growing online manipulation in the region.

Warsaw

A recent analysis by the Polish NGO Dres Futura has found that claims circulating online about Poles blaming Ukraine for a recent drone incursion are not supported by opinion polls. Instead, the study examined 179,000 Polish social media posts and comments, revealing that 38% of mentions blamed Ukraine, a narrative attributed to an organised disinformation campaign.

The analysis was widely misrepresented as public opinion polling, both on social media and in some news articles. The NGO clarified that these figures reflect the prevalence of certain narratives online, not the actual views of the Polish population, and highlighted the role of pro-Russian disinformation in spreading these claims.

Polish study links Kyiv drone blame claims to disinformation

No opinion poll shows that Poles blame Ukraine for the drone incursion. Claims are circulating online that the Polish population mainly considers Ukraine responsible for this month's drone incursion, which Warsaw has described as intentional Russian provocation. On the night of September 9th, Polish and NATO fighter jets scrambled to down as many as 20 drones which had entered Polish skies. In the two weeks since, there have been multiple reports of other European airspace violations linked to Moscow. These have triggered a wave of unfounded speculation and misinformation online, including claims that Ukraine has been staging false flag attacks. This graph has emerged, claiming to show that as many as 38% of Poles believe Ukraine is to blame for the 9th September drone incursion, while 34% polled Russia responsible. We detected the claims circulating in several languages on Facebook, Telegram, Instagram and X, garnering millions of views. But the graph in fact comes from a report by the Polish NGO Dres Futura. Their analysts examined as many as 179,000 Polish posts and comments on social media in the aftermath of the incursion, and found that 38% of those mentions blamed Ukraine. The analysts attribute this to an organised information psychological campaign, explaining that many of the posts are repetitive in narrative and aggressive in rhetoric, typical of pro-Russian disinformation. This analysis has however been misrepresented as opinion polling, both in social media posts and news articles. It does not in any way indicate that the Polish population holds Ukraine responsible for the incursion, but rather that this was the most predominant narrative circulating on social media, peddled by disinformation actors.

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