In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno breaks down the snow coming to the Midwest and Northeast on New Year's Eve.

AccuWeather's latest forecast indicates that an Arctic boundary will bring light snow and cold conditions to parts of the Northeast United States on New Year's Eve, with areas such as New York City, Long Island, northern New Jersey, and southeastern New England likely to see a coating to an inch of snow. The snow is expected to arrive Wednesday night, and while accumulations will be light, cold ground temperatures may create slippery spots for travelers.

Looking ahead, recent weather models have shifted, showing that the anticipated major storm for the East Coast next week is now unlikely. The cold air is expected to move out of the region by mid-January, with snow chances decreasing in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and shifting toward the central United States.

New Year's Eve cold and snow, then what?

And the last forecast feed, or as I call it, the feed of 2025, and we'll be talking about New Year's Eve snow, even toward New York City. We've been talking about this Arctic boundary since, remember, last week. It won't be a big storm, but it will be a disruptive system. Now, as we get into late next week, that's the time frame I've been looking at, that if there was going to be a sizable storm, that's what it would be. But I'm shocked at how the modeling has changed significantly from where we were earlier in the week, showing a big trough coming into the east, maybe something coming up the coast. I don't see none of that now. Doesn't mean that there's still not some of a threat there, but certainly it's not looked the way I thought it would earlier in the week. Let's take it one by one here. I want to show you this is the system that we're going to be tracking here today. Listen, not a big snow, but I'll tell you what, and you're going to see the modeling here, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cleveland here. I mean, you've got to be careful of this. We have it as a storm, but it's really an Arctic boundary coming south. There's going to be some heavier snow squalls this afternoon in this area. It doesn't snow a loss, but it can come fast and furious, and if you're on interstates 80, 70, any of the interstates in here, you've got to be careful. We can have reduced visibility, and all of a sudden, you go from nothing to some major problems on the roadways. Be careful. Let me show you how this is going to work, and then we'll take a look at what's going to be happening next week. Let's talk about this first dip in the jet stream that's coming our way here. Let me show you the modeling here. Here we go. Here it is right here. It's this short wave in here. This is where we are this morning. We've talked about this since last week, that the deeper this goes, the more widespread snow there will be, especially along the East Coast. We'll track that first, and you can see that coming across the upper Midwest. Here it comes, and then watch what happens. This is around midnight, and then 7 a.m. right in here. Now I'm going to stop it. What will happen is, you're going to get snow across New York State, parts of Pennsylvania, but once you get what I call east of the mountains, east of this line, so east of the Appalachians, what will end up happening is, if you're on the southern side of this short wave or this energy, you're going to get such a strong westerly, windy downslope, and nothing happens. The snow showers make it up to the Appalachians, and then once you get east of the Appalachians, you get nothing. However, there's going to be a location right in here, and it's right here. As I talked about, I always thought New York City was on the line of this, that because of the short waves deepening so much, north of this line, you don't get the downsloping westerly flow, so the snow makes it right to the coast. I think that's going to be the dividing line here is going to be around New York City. It's going to be around New York City, Long Island on north, where you're going to get a little bit of snow. You'll also get it, as I mentioned, into the Appalachians, but if you're like in Harrisburg, Philadelphia, southern New Jersey, probably central New Jersey, let's say interstate 80, the cutoff there on south, you probably don't get any snow. Northern New Jersey, I'm always being told I'm not mentioning New Jersey enough, so northern New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, in the southeastern New England, you're going to get an accumulating snow here for New Year's Eve. If you're watching the ball drop here tonight, you're going to see it in New York City. You'll see the snow here. How much? It's not going to be a lot. You're going to see a lot of coatings to an inch here, and here's the timeframe that we're looking at here through Wednesday night in the central Pennsylvania, and then east of this line Wednesday night, and this includes for New York City, again, northern New Jersey. I'm using around interstate 80 cutoff. This is when the snow arrives. One to an inch doesn't sound like a lot, but the ground is so cold that there certainly can be some slippery spots here, so do be careful if you're traveling tonight. Now, I want to get into next week because I'm really surprised at how the modeling has changed as we get toward the middle part of next week. Now, everything else that we talked about through early next week is right in that you're going to see an injection of cold air coming. I'll show you the surface map here. As we get into early next week, this is Sunday into Monday, you can see the high pressure building on in, so we've got cold air in place. It's not super cold, but it's cold enough for snow, and then what I thought was going to happen was that as we got into the middle part of the week, you would see a big trough that developed here along the east coast. A storm would form, and depending on where this trough would locate, the storm would either go out to sea or try to come up the coast. Well, take a look at the upper air pattern later this week. I don't see... See this right in here, you see this trough in here near James Bay? This is the trough I thought would come down and dig like this or along the east coast like this. But look at the modeling now as we get into Wednesday, Thursday, none of that at all. There's no digging. Now, there is this little piece of energy coming eastward. Wednesday into Thursday, you see it, it went forward right into here. This system will have to be watched, but the thing is, if you're looking for snow in the northeast, the cold air is leaving on Wednesday and Thursday. So unless this would come down and dig a little more and instead of coming across the country like this, it comes like this, there's not going to be a lot of snow with it. Look at the surface map, see? Here comes the storm. So this is the one I was thinking about, but it's awfully far north. Now, if this digs a little more, instead of the storm taking a track farther north like here, you see it tracking like this, if it's a little farther south, then we have a possibility. But I'm not too optimistic right now for snow. I really thought with this cold air in place that there'd be an opportunity middle January or at least late next week. Beyond that, the pattern going farther here, it looks like the cold air leaves. This is by the middle part of April, of January, if this is right. The upper highs here and your snow chances are not in the mid-Atlantic and northeast, but in the central part of the United States. So until mid-January right now, unless that system changes late next week, not looking for a lot of snow in the mid-Atlantic and the northeast. Happy New Year.

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Breakdown