News on American jobless claims and interest rates are painting a more positive picture for the U.S. economy. CBS News' Kelly O'Grady has more on the latest economic data.

Washington

New economic data from the United States indicates a positive trend in the labor market and overall economic growth. Jobless claims have fallen to 218,000, below expectations, suggesting that employers are not conducting mass layoffs. Additionally, the US GDP growth for the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, driven by increased consumer spending, particularly among higher-income households.

However, the housing market presents a mixed picture. Existing home sales remained flat, and supply decreased for the first time in several months, making it difficult for first-time buyers. Mortgage rates, which had recently declined, have begun to rise again, influenced by movements in the 10-year Treasury yield and expectations about future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

New economic data on jobless claims, housing

We've also got some new economic data out in the last few hours, which is providing some relatively positive news. New jobless claims for last week not only fell from the week before, coming in well below expectations, U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter was just revised up. So joining me in Studio 55 is CBS News Money Watch correspondent Kelly O'Grady. What's up? Hey there. So walk us through these new numbers that we just mentioned. Okay, so let's start with second quarter GDP. Remember, this is the third estimate, the final estimate. It actually showed that the economy grew 3.8% in the second quarter. We were expecting it to come in at about 3.3%, so a big jump. The reason behind it is consumer spending was revised up, and so that is good news for the economy. I do want to caveat, though, that we have seen a two-speed economy, so the higher income folks are doing more of the heavy lifting on the spending, whereas the lower income folks not so much. That's why we're calling it a two-speed. The more interesting thing is the labor market, right? We've been talking a lot about that. That's why the Federal Reserve cut interest rates recently. Jobless claims, that's when people are filing for unemployment for the first time, came in at 218,000. We were expecting 235,000. So that's a really good sign. What does that tell you? It means we're not seeing mass layoffs from employers like a lot of people have feared. People are holding on to their employees, but continuing claims. So those are the people who are filing for employment, sort of their second, third week, they're continuing to look for a job. And that's stayed steady, and we have had multiple weeks where that has continued to be at a high number. So what does that tell you? If you're looking for a job, a lot of places aren't hiring either. And so it's good to see that we aren't seeing those mass firings, but the fact that if you are out there... But you're not creating any new jobs. Exactly. That's the more concerning part. All right. Well, there are some new numbers on the state of the housing market, and it's sort of good, but it's not so good if you are just struggling to, for example, come up with a down payment for a house. You're speaking my language. All right. Break it down. I'm struggling. I know. Is that you guys? It's me. All right. So let me tell you about my situation. So this is existing home sales. These are homes that have already been built, and they're changing hands from one to another. So August, it pretty much remained flat. And if you think about it, this looks at data from when interest rates were actually a lot higher, almost a half a point higher when mortgage rates. Now, the good thing is that September, we have seen them come down. So hopefully when we look at the data next month, when we'll get September, we'll actually see a boost. But what I thought was really interesting is supply decreased in August for the first time in a lot of months. And we've talked a lot about how this has moved from a really intense seller's market more to a buyer's market because there's been more supply. And there have been more reticent people like me saying, like, hey, I'm waiting for my lower interest rate. That's right. I don't want to go. But you're actually seeing those sellers say, you know what? I don't need to sell. I'm going to take my home off the market. I'm not going to do this right now. And that's where it's just this catch-22 for people who are first-time homebuyers. Yeah. And so how likely is it that we'll see—I know the Fed rate doesn't necessarily correspond to interest rates on mortgages, but how likely are we to see something that could—I'm looking too because we bought with a high mortgage rate relatively compared to people who bought five years ago. And we're just looking for that refinancing opportunity. What do you see there? Marry the house, date the rate, right? That's right. 100%. That's the way it goes. So we saw mortgage rates sharply come down at the beginning of September. They're lowest that we've seen in a while, but we actually started—this last week ticked a little bit up. Oh, man. And why is that? The reason? Because the 30-year fix tracks the 10-year Treasury, and the 10-year Treasury moves with where investors think interest rates are going to go. Remember, we've heard that the Fed is likely going to cut a couple times before the end of the year, but only one cut in 2026. Only one cut in 2026, but there's another one coming, right? But a lot of investors have already priced in, and so that's why you saw a sharp decline in mortgage rates. And there's a lot of questions. Are we going to see that continue, or is it actually going to creep up a little bit? Oh, really, really interesting. Really look for the inflation rate tomorrow. That will also impact that mortgage rate. All right. Kelly O'Grady for us. Always good to have you in the studio. Where have you been? I've been away, too, so it's not like I should be talking to myself here. Kelly, always good to have you. Thank you.

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