Multiple countries have said they will recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly opening on September 9. What are the real-world stakes?

New York

Israel and Iran have agreed a ceasefire after a twelve day conflict. Meanwhile, Israel strikes in Gaza continue with the humanitarian crisis deepening.

Middle East Conflict

Momentum is increasing for the recognition of Palestinian statehood, with over 140 countries having already recognized Palestine. At the latest United Nations General Assembly, several European countries, including France, the UK, Belgium, and Malta, as well as non-European countries like Australia, indicated intentions to recognize Palestine, though some, such as the UK, have set conditions. This growing support is putting pressure on other nations, including Germany, to clarify their positions.

Despite this international momentum, strong opposition remains from Israel and the United States. The US has warned that recognition could complicate efforts for a ceasefire and potentially accelerate Israeli annexation of the West Bank. Meanwhile, Palestinian political divisions persist, but leaders claim there is consensus for a technocratic government to oversee Palestinian territories. The overall future of Palestinian sovereignty remains uncertain due to ongoing regional and international disagreements.

More states to recognize Palestine at UN General Assembly

Almost 40 years since Yasser Arafat first declared Palestinian independence, momentum is now building. More than 140 countries have now recognized Palestine, and several European governments are signaling they may follow. This United Nations General Assembly is going to be a very momentous one. I think the focus will be very much on the recognition of Palestinian statehood. A number of states like France and the UK have said that they will recognize the Palestinian state. The UK with some conditionality. Belgium announced that it will recognize Palestine, and then there's European states like Malta and non-European states like Australia and others. So yes, every country that will recognize Palestine as a state will put pressure on the United Nations to recognize Palestine as a full state. And that momentum is putting pressure on Germany, a country long cautious on the issue, balancing its historical responsibility towards Israel with support for a two-state solution. Germany has a responsibility towards us, and it has a responsibility towards the international system. And recognition of the state of Palestine is to affirm a way forward, affirm the two-state solution that Germany has always espoused. This is a grand moment for all of us. It's the heavy hands of history. And Germany was one of the founding members of the rules-based international order, because we all learned the lessons of the Second World War, the horrors of the Second World War. And the main thing about that lesson is never again, but never again was not meant to be for the few, never again was meant to be for all. But the United States, Israel's closest ally, remains firmly opposed. We said, if you guys do this recognition stuff, it's all fake, it's not even real. If you do it, you're going to create big problems. There's going to be a response from Israel. You're going to make it harder to get a ceasefire. And it may even trigger these sorts of actions that you've seen, or at least these attempts at these actions. The message is clear. Washington signals recognition could accelerate Israeli annexation of the West Bank, a longstanding goal of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition. With the current government, there's a push to annex the West Bank and Gaza as a response to the move of declaration of a Palestinian state. And I think, quite frankly, the move towards annexation would have happened anyway. I think the problem is that basically the West Bank has already de facto been annexed, very smartly, for the last few years. I've just returned from the West Bank myself, after a month there, and what I have seen there was absolutely shocking, that Israel is going after erasure of our people in the West Bank, not just in Gaza. And yet, Palestinian politics remain deeply divided. President Mahmoud Abbas, now in his late 80s, has led the Palestinian Authority since 2005, ruling largely by decree. No presidential or parliamentary elections have been held since 2006, when Hamas won and later seized control over Gaza, leaving the Palestinian territory split between rival governments. But Palestinian leaders insist unity is within reach. There is an agreement, a consensus, by Palestine, the state of Palestine, the government of Palestine, the region, consensus, the Arab summit, and the rest of the international community, that there will be a technocratic government in control of caring for, providing for the West Bank, including East Jerusalem and Gaza, and that there has to be the unity of the Palestinian people, land and political system, under that one technocratic government, and there will not be a role for Hamas or any other political faction in that government. And, by the way, this is also Hamas agrees with this. But with Israel rejecting not only Hamas but also Palestinian Authority from any role in governance, and the United States opposing any formal acknowledgement, the future of Palestinian sovereignty, with or without broader international recognition, remains as uncertain as ever.

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More states to recognize Palestine at UN General Assembly

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