The Atlantic remains quiet due to Saharan dust and wind shear. AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno monitors the Gulf and the Bermuda region for any chances of the development of homegrown storms.

Florida

Recent weeks saw three named storms in the Atlantic, but none had significant impacts on the United States, except for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of Texas and North Carolina. Currently, the Atlantic Basin is experiencing conditions that are hostile to storm development, primarily due to Saharan dust and strong wind shear.

Meteorologists are monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and the area north of Bermuda for any signs of homegrown storm development. However, the likelihood of new storms forming in these regions remains low, as the necessary atmospheric patterns are not as strong as those that led to previous storms.

Monitoring the tropics for homegrown development

well, things can change pretty quickly in the tropics. It was two weeks ago. We didn't have any named storms. Then snap of a finger. We got three right in a row. Andrea, which was well out in the Atlantic north of Bermuda, didn't have any impact really on anything. Anybody here that we had Barry tropical storm that came in across Mexico, some of that moisture leading or helping produce the flash flooding in central Texas a week ago. And then we had Chantal making landfall just south of Myrtle Beach early Sunday morning and inundated parts of North Carolina around Chapel Hill with some heavy rainfall here in a lot of problems with flash flooding. Now, when you take a look at the tropical basin, much of the Atlantic Basin is closed for business. As I would say, it's hostile for development in the Atlantic Basin. A lot of dry air denoted by the yellow shading. You also have a lot of wind shear here across the Caribbean. So nothing is going to be forming in the Atlantic Basin or in the tropical Atlantic, which is typical for this time of the year. We always talk about this. Where do we look for development? Homegrown development near the United States. That's why we call it homegrown. How does that occur when you get dips in the jet stream coming on southbound here and what that dip in the jet stream does brings fronts and upper lows. So you start the process of getting showers and thunderstorms since you can't get them with those tropical waves. And then if that area of rain and thunderstorms can sit over the water for a period of time, it can slowly develop. That's how we got development from Chantal. Do we see that pattern? Set it up a little bit middle part of next week, a little weak dip in the jet streams, not as strong as it was with Chantal. But two areas we're going to keep an eye on here. One is going to be off the east coast north of Bermuda. The other area in the Gulf of Mexico. The chances for development, though, are small. Mhm.

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