Name: Melissa to strengthen into major hurricane
Uploaded: 2025-10-24T17:06:38.279Z
Duration: 4 min 18 s
Description: Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane over the weekend and could end up being one of the strongest of the season.

Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane over the weekend and could end up being one of the strongest of the season.

Meteorologists report that Hurricane Melissa is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane as wind shear in the region decreases and water temperatures remain significantly above average. The storm's center has shown some instability, but improving atmospheric conditions are expected to allow for rapid intensification, particularly south of Jamaica.

Forecast models present several possible tracks for Melissa, including paths near Central America, eastern Cuba, and potentially closer to the U.S. east coast. While the most probable scenario is a turn away from the U.S. after passing near Cuba, forecasters caution that small changes in the storm's movement could affect its trajectory. Residents in the region are advised to monitor updates closely as the situation develops.

Melissa to strengthen into major hurricane

Alex, your thoughts on the latest latest information pertaining to Melissa. Yeah, well, when we talked yesterday, we talked about how the center was kind of jumping around a little bit. It was trying to jump underneath the biggest thunderstorms and kind of moving around. And we've seen another jump this morning. The storm was a little bit more to the north, and it is actually jumped southeast underneath some of that convection. So the storm is still struggling to to kind of get its act together. The hurricane hunters are flying around in the storm right now and are finding that it doesn't have a very tight circulation quite yet. But we think that throughout the day today, some of that wind shear that has been plaguing the storm will begin to relax a little bit, and we can expect some more intensification starting maybe later today, but certainly through the weekend. Yeah, let's take a look at that. I mean, here's the current wind shear. I mean, this has been the problem since Melissa made its way into the Caribbean. But as we've always talked about, as we head into the weekend, the wind shear is going to lower. And watch the wind shear product here. And I want everybody to take a look at the light purples. That's the low wind shear. Watch how that starts coming north as we move through the weekend. Yeah, that wind shear, I think, is going to slide just enough to the north here this weekend and early next week to give this storm some opportunity to breathe a little bit more and to really get organized south of Jamaica. So especially if the storm tracks south of Jamaica, which we still do expect that to happen, that is where we could really see that intensification. And it could intensify very, very quickly this weekend. Look at these water temperatures. I know we've been saying this for days and days and days, but look at how warm these waters are. They are several degrees above historical averages for this time of the year. We're talking about water temperatures in the middle to upper 80s in this area. Deep warm water, plenty of fuel. So as soon as that wind shear relaxes over the storm, it is not going to take long for this to take off quickly. All right, let's take a look at the track, Alex, because, again, because the center of circulation, in a sense, isn't really formed, there's still some different scenarios to play out. Let's talk about the far right, the far left, and then we'll talk about the AccuWeather forecast. Yeah, and that's why it's very important to monitor these jumps with the storm, like reforming and stuff like that, because these small changes can have big ramifications later on in the track. There are still some computer models that take the storm very, very close to Central America near Nicaragua, so it's still possible that the storm could hug that western side of the cone, and then there's some guidance that take it towards the eastern tip of Cuba. Now, obviously, we think that the most likely scenario is a track just south of Jamaica or maybe right along the coast and then turning to the north, but a lot of times with these slow, meandering storms, sometimes they can kind of have a mind of their own in the short term, which is why it's going to be very important to monitor any little baubles here over the next 24 to 48 hours to see how those might affect the track. All right, let's talk about the U.S. Not much has changed. You know, a lot will depend, where is Melissa on Monday? The farther west it is, it increases the probability of a close call in South Florida, but really will determine where Melissa moves not only near Florida, but up the east coast is where this dip in the jet stream sets up shop. Yeah, we continue to believe that the most likely scenario is a turn across eastern Cuba and then out over the Atlantic towards Bermuda and out to sea away from the U.S. I still believe that that is the most likely scenario, but it certainly is not the only scenario. If this storm does trend a little bit further to the west, it could come a little bit closer to Florida or even the outer banks of North Carolina. We cannot, with 100% certainty, clear anybody on the east coast quite yet. While we think the risk is small of a direct hit, we cannot clear anybody at the current time, and a lot of that has to do with the timing of the storm when it begins its turn to the north and then that timing, of course, of that dip in the jet stream coming in. It could allow the storm to come a little bit further to the west. So we want people to monitor the forecast very, very carefully over the coming days as there could be some changes.

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