In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on Melissa and a possible East Coast storm next week.

Meteorological analysis indicates that tropical system Melissa and a developing East Coast storm are interconnected, with their paths and intensities influenced by broader weather patterns, including a jet stream dip and other regional storms. Multiple forecast models, including American, European, Canadian, and British, present differing scenarios for Melissa's trajectory, with some models suggesting impacts to Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and potentially Florida.

Regardless of the exact track, there is consensus among models that a coastal storm will form off the North Carolina coast, bringing the threat of extensive beach erosion, coastal flooding, and heavy rain from the Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore and southeastern New England. These areas have already experienced significant beach erosion from previous storms, heightening concerns about further damage and flooding.

Melissa and a damaging East Coast storm

Melissa and another damaging East Coast storm, and they're related to each other. And that's the story on the feed today. What's always fascinating about the weather is how everything is connected. Every little push here, there's a counter push. And Melissa is going to be impacted by our storm in Texas, and that storm in Texas is going to be impacted by a storm in the Northwest. Amazing, isn't it? Let's take a look at this right now on the satellite picture here. Here is Melissa down here. And again, the ending game for Melissa is going to be determined by some part by this storm across the Plain States. And this storm will then be impacted by this storm in the Northwest. And this storm in the Northwest may really intensify this storm as it gets toward the East Coast as we head into the week. So a lot going on right now. I do want to start early next week. I want to end with Melissa or begin with Melissa just a little bit, just so you see that the end game is still a little up in the air, a lot of the end game up in the air, because the center of circulation is jumping around a little bit. Want to show you some of the modeling. We're going to look at the American, the European, the Canadian, and the British model. Four models all have different solutions with Melissa. And to some extent, our coastal storm as we head into the middle part of this week. Let's begin on Monday. This is the American model. This has always been the outlier. This is Melissa. And then this dip in the jet stream coming eastward, this dip in the jet stream will determine where Melissa goes. All right, this is the American model. Look where it is on Monday. What does it do? It continues to take Melissa. This is the best case scenario, at least for Jamaica, not so for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but this takes the storm well to the east. You see that? And then out to sea. That's the American model. Let's take a look at the European. Same timeframe. We'll take a look at this on Monday. Slower, much slower. Look at the difference. There's the American, the European, south of Jamaica. This is not a good situation for Jamaica, but you can see how it goes northward. There it goes. And then out to sea. What steers the storm? That dip in the jet stream coming across the southeast. That steers Melissa, the European, out to sea. Look at the differences. Wednesday evening, American, way up east of Bermuda. The European still moving over Jamaica. All right, let's take a look at the Canadian model. Same story here, Monday morning. Not that much different than the European. European, Canadian. European, Canadian. European, Canadian. Not much difference. The Canadian model, west-southwest, a little farther east, missing Florida to the east. You see that? All right, why is it different? It's because of that dip in the jet stream. Look at the dip in the jet stream on the Canadian. There it is across eastern Oklahoma. Where does the European have it? Way to the east. So as a result, that dip in the jet stream farther east kicks Melissa off to the east. The Canadian says, no, dip in the jet stream is west, so the storm comes west. The other outlier is the British model. Take a look at this. You don't even see Melissa on here. Let's go to Tuesday. Here's Melissa way down here, weak. I don't think this is right, but it does show you it's a lot farther west, and the other thing you're gonna see is this dip in the jet stream also farther west. So as a result, as we play the British, here comes Melissa, here's Melissa, here's the dip in the jet stream. This is a dangerous scenario for Florida. That's why Florida is still in. Now, this dip in the jet stream also helps lead to our coastal storm this weekend. Now, this is a dangerous scenario for the east coast because of this. Take a look at this. These beach areas from the outer banks of North Carolina all the way up toward the Jersey Shore are already compromised here. Take a look at some of this video that we've seen over the last couple of weeks in cities like beach communities like Strathmere and Avalon. There is no beach left, and remember, those dunes protect the houses away from the ocean, from the water from the Atlantic. They're already compromised, so if there's gonna be another storm that goes into this area, back to the graphic, this is gonna cause major problems. We've already seen it in the outer banks, and I'll tell you what, the Jersey Shore especially, but even Virginia Beach is compromised right now from all of the storms. Well, the concern we have is there is gonna be a storm or at least a period of rain and wind along the east coast as we head into next week. Let's take a look at some of the modeling here. This is the GFS on Tuesday. Now, I'm gonna stop this Wednesday morning. You have big high here. Here's your storm. It's not all that strong, but look what's going on here. Easterly winds that would continue to cause a pounding from the Jersey Shore all the way down toward the outer banks of North Carolina. That's the American model. What does the European model have? More dangerous because look at the storm. It is stronger as it moves north. Look at how it intensifies here. This would be another nor'easter, especially for the Jersey Shore and then up in the southeastern New England. Look at the storm. Now, little different than the European, the American model, American-European, American-European, look at Wednesday morning. The American-European, American-European, European stronger and farther to the west, but still shows the same story. How about the Canadian model? Same thing, a little earlier with the storm, but notice what's going on. You still have a storm offshore. Look at that easterly wind into New Jersey. The UK met, same thing, early in the week. Rain and wind in the mid-Atlantic. I'm afraid this is gonna be a problem for these beaches because no matter what you look at, there's different scenarios, but it looks to us here that we're gonna have a storm that's gonna form off the North Carolina coast. Here's your impact zone in red. Extensive beach erosion, coastal flooding, heavy rain threat, and across those areas that have already been inundated with previous storms, the message on the feed is this could be a huge, huge problem.

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