Name: London IPO market set to surprise in 2026, says analyst
Uploaded: 2025-12-30T08:53:13.177Z
Duration: 4 min 19 s
Description: Gareth McCartney, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS, discusses the IPO market in 2025, and his outlook for 2026.

Gareth McCartney, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS, discusses the IPO market in 2025, and his outlook for 2026.

London

The IPO market in 2025 experienced early setbacks due to tariff volatility and a government shutdown, despite initial optimism driven by anticipated election outcomes and interest rate normalization. However, the latter half of the year saw a recovery, with significant IPO activity across all regions, particularly in Asia, while the U.S. market showed strong year-over-year growth but remained below its five-year average.

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts predict the U.S. will regain its leadership in global equity capital markets, with potential high-profile IPOs such as OpenAI. In Europe, London is expected to surprise on the upside as regulatory reforms and government initiatives make it an increasingly attractive venue for listings, supported by a broad range of active sectors and a preference among investors for larger IPOs.

London IPO market set to surprise in 2026, says analyst

2025 was always the year of the great hope that this was going to be the year for the IPO market. Everything was in place. We'd have the elections. We'd have the interest rate normalization. We had a good pipeline. And I think we clearly got a bit derailed with the tariff volatility that we had in the peak first half of the year IPO market. But I think what's really encouraging for the forward is that the second half of this year i.e. the second half of 2025 we had multiple large deals happening. Every region was active. And I think critically U.S. IPO market was up 90 percent in volumes last year. We still haven't got back to the five year average. But with some of the larger deals that printed right into the end of last year like Medline for example I think that's very encouraging as we look forward to next year. So I think wrapping up 25 it was the return to normalization that we'd hoped for. Maybe not as frothy as we might have expected with the tariffs and perhaps the government shutdown taking a little bit of the steam out. Would you say that this was a global resurgence or perhaps you know a little bit more focused in certain parts of the market. But this cycle has been highly unusual in that it was led by Europe initially. Then we've seen Asia actually and really 25 was the story of Asia. This was the international investors reengaging with China. Astonishingly strong stock market performance across Asia then being reflected in a lot of primary issuance. And actually the U.S. has been the laggard in this. But my suspicion is next year 2026 will be the year of the U.S. IPO and the U.S. regaining the leadership from a global ECM perspective. To that point there could be only one headline for next year which is open AI goes public at a one trillion dollar valuation. If that happens what would it take. I mean what are the factors for that stock of that company to come to market with such a huge valuation. So I think the last peak of IPO market in 2021 was very much a growth driven story particularly in the U.S. and around tech. I think what gives me more confidence that there's more sustainability in this rally of the IPO market and ECM issuance more broadly is across the globe. There's a number of different narratives. So yes we have mega tech in the U.S. Undoubtedly there'll be a huge amount of focus on that. And there's two or three names that could really skew volumes particularly high. But I think if you look to Europe there's the defense theme. There's the fintech theme. And there's also infrastructure industrial spending. You look to Asia. I think E.V. has been a big driver of that market will continue to be so. And if we look at the U.S. clearly it's going to be software. It's going to be health care. I think we'll continue to be active. And then we'll have these jumbo highlights such as the name that you mentioned. It could be coming of age for some of those fintech players in Europe. I was looking at some names of Revolute Monza. I mean these are companies we're talking about pre-COVID that were really having their moment. The other interpretation is where the new sectors could also step up. And the one that you didn't mention was space. We've been having conversations this morning about space. Space X came to the market. It feels like that would put another spotlight on space stocks and space exposures. Is that the right interpretation. I think that's exactly right. And it goes back to this. We have multiple different narratives. You know there's AI. There's all the connected pieces around AI. You potentially have quantum computing. We have space. And then I think you go back to more old school industrials here in Europe. So actually the breadth of the market is as wide as it's been for a while. One caveat being I think the clear implicit message from investors over the last few years is this is about scale. They want larger IPOs which I think talks directly to aftermarket liquidity. Let's bring our attention back to Europe for a moment if we if we may. Because as we showed in the package our colleague Annetta was very much busy this year with all of the news out of Frankfurt. Any other markets in Europe that you would highlight for 2026. I think London will be the market that surprises to the upside next year. There's plenty of media coverage around the London IPO market and questions around it. Reality is regulators and the government here have done a huge amount to make this a very attractive place to list. Historically it's always been a place international investors have enjoyed investing. So I think my prediction would be that we continue to see Europe active. But London really comes back to the fore in 2026.

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