In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish takes a look at the risk for cold and snow for some in the United States.

Meteorologists are forecasting a persistent cold pattern across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, with multiple rounds of snow expected in the coming days. The first major storm is set to impact the Midwest with heavy snow, while the Northeast will see a mix of snow, ice, and rain, particularly from Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday expected to bring the greatest impacts.

Forecast models indicate that areas north and west of I-95, especially near I-81, could experience a significant early-season winter storm, with snowfall totals ranging from 1 to 6 inches and localized amounts up to 12 inches. Another potential storm is being monitored for the following weekend, though its impact will depend on the evolution of atmospheric conditions.

Loaded pattern: Cold, several opportunities for snow

And here on the forecast feed on this Black Friday edition, and moving through Thanksgiving weekend, we are dealing with a loaded pattern. We've got cold, we have multiple rounds of snow in the short term. The Midwest getting hit hard on Saturday, but we want to look a little farther down the line with the forecast feed to two additional storms that may put some of the northeast and will put more of the northeast in play for some accumulating snow. The plows will be out, make sure that snow blower is ready. We'll look at a couple of graphics, some computer model data, and then back to a graphic or two to summarize things. But overall, looking at the big picture here, this next week we have the first order of business, a storm moving from the plains into the New England states Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Tuesday is the bigger day for the northeastern U.S. for the impacts from this system. On the southern side of this, there will be some scattered thunderstorms in the southeast. And just in general, if you're north of I-40 and east of the Rockies, so if you're anywhere in the north central plains into the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the northeast, you have a cold pattern here, and the cold is going to be persistent. It comes in kind of like the tide, almost waves of cold behind every storm system. The winds reorient, we get that northwest flow, and we chill back down. Now, let's take a look at some of the models here, and I'm going to jump past the weekend storm, which will be a high impact event in the Midwest, primarily a rain event for the northeast. Interior northeast, you're going to see a little bit of a mix over to some rain. With a storm track where it is, when a storm tracks over eastern Michigan, especially this time of year, you're going to get a changeover to rain in most areas east of I-81 and along I-81. It'll be a sloppy mix. As you can see, again, there's just too much warm advection here, and we're going to be dealing with a lot of rain showers that roll in after maybe a little bit of a transition period of time in between these two lines here on Sunday, where there could be a sloppy mix of snow to maybe a little bit of ice, and then over to rain on Sunday. But what really has our attention is the next one behind that. Look at the GFS model for Tuesday, Monday into Tuesday. You can see, even before we go upstairs to the upper level flow, you can see the northern branch feature. You can see flow coming out of the gulf, and these systems are going to work in tandem with one another, in phase with one another to produce a pretty impactful storm. Now, we call it the QPF, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, how much rain or snow would fall. Pretty juiced up here in the GFS, perhaps the wettest of all these models. Now, the storm track is going to be hugging the coast. There's not a whole lot of well-established cold air in place. There is an area of high pressure, but you'll notice it scoots up and out. If it were anchored over eastern Ontario, western Quebec, and staying there, that would be a cold press, keeping the cold air with the circulation around it in place. That's not quite the case. It's not the ideal position for cold to be sustained along I-95. There is a high pressure system to the north of this storm, but it's kind of transient and it moves out. You can see, once it moves out to sea, there's no longer really much of a reinforcing push to keep that cold in place. You can see with our low pressure system becoming the dominant driver here, there's just so much flow out of the southeast to drive warmer air in, and that high pressure system is nowhere to be found. It's way, way out east of the Canadian Maritimes. For, say, New York City or Philadelphia, primarily a rain event. There could be a mix on the front end, but it won't be sustained. Now if you're north and west of I-95, especially I-81, you've got a good winter storm here early in the season. The European, not quite as wet. One thing I do want to point out, this is just Meteorology 101, when you have these isobars that are kinked down over the east side of the mountains here, that's a cold air damming signature. You can see it really well with the European model. That's a sign of cold air that's been dammed up against the east side of the mountains. And again, the cold air is dense, it hugs the low elevations. You have the mountains there with elevations of 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 feet just to your west. Cold air gets stuck there and trapped. That's why we have such a proclivity for ice storms in areas like the Blue Ridge and the I-81 stretch of western Virginia. We're going to see some ice there on Tuesday and some snow that could become heavy snow for southern New England on Tuesday afternoon. This becomes a powerful storm, 996 low in the European, 994 low south of Block Island, Rhode Island in the GFS. Pretty good storm system, similar 994 low in the Canadian. Pretty impressive stuff. Now, let's take a look at this storm system here. The only thing it doesn't fully have going for it in the argument for a big winter storm is that it's kind of progressive. The trough is not fully tilted. It's tilted positively from southwest to northeast as opposed to negatively tilted northwest to southeast. So because it's going to be a fast mover, it's a decent storm. Anything this side of December 15th could be a win for the snow fans. So this is what we're forecasting. Again, it's a swift mover. I do think there will be some areas that exceed the 1 to 3 inch forecast in some of these areas, parts of central PA, western Maryland perhaps. There's going to be some ice down this way. Just be aware. Some ice down here. But the snowfall forecast looks like this. And we do have a 3 to 6 inch. There is some potential that in southern New England, maybe just north of Hartford, we could get into something more than 3 to 6. You can see our AccuWeather local storm max, 12 inches. We got some time. We're going to be tweaking this with time. But that's the big idea. Pretty conservative first call from our forecast team here. I think we exceed some of these numbers in a few spots. But again, 1 to 3 inches likely for Redding, PA, Allentown, and 3 to 6 up into areas around Poughkeepsie, New York, and points north. A quick word on the next storm. We go farther out. The one after that. You can see there's potential for either, here we have the GFS, a non-event next Saturday. But look at the European. Look at the European. Pretty interesting storm. And the Canadian, kind of between the two. So the difference here, we need to keep an eye on, if it's like the GFS, it's a pretty shallow wave. If it's like the European, look how deep that trough is. So there are some questions out there. But if the European is right, next weekend, we got chances for another significant round of snow. It depends on the depth of that trough and some other factors. That is your forecast feed.

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