NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has repeatedly said that Moscow’s annual ammunition production capacity is four times greater than that of the western alliance.

Moscow

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that Russia is producing ammunition at a rate four times greater than NATO, with Moscow reportedly manufacturing in three months what NATO produces in a year. Data from 2023 and 2024 support this claim, showing Russia's annual production at up to 4.5 million rounds, while the US and Europe combined produced approximately 1.2 million shells per year.

Looking ahead, Russia aims to produce 7 million artillery and mortar shells in 2025, while NATO's target is 3.3 million. Although these figures are estimates and actual Russian production is classified, the data suggests NATO is working to close the gap, but remains behind despite the alliance's significantly larger combined GDP.

Is Russia producing year's worth of NATO ammunition in three months?

Is Russia producing four times more ammunition than NATO? The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, has warned that the Alliance is severely lagging behind Russia on ammunition production. In terms of ammunition, Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year. We verified Rutte's claim that Russia's annual ammunition production is four times that of NATO against the available data. The sources we consulted put Russia's ammunition production at up to 4 million rounds in 2023 and up to 4.5 million rounds in 2024. In 2024, the US and Europe, which are the major NATO economies, were producing an estimated 1.2 million shells per year combined, which is roughly what Russia was producing in three months, as Rutte claimed. According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, Moscow plans to produce 7 million artillery and mortar shells in 2025. Europe and the US's combined target for 2025 stands at 3.3 million, which means that if they do reach those targets, they will be closing the gap. These figures are estimates. The real volumes produced by Moscow are classified. But the estimates do suggest that while Rutte's claim that Russia was producing a year's worth of NATO ammunition in just three months may have been true for last year, there are signs this is changing as the alliance tries to catch up. Yet it's clear that NATO is still well and truly behind Moscow, despite Russia's GDP being almost 25 times smaller than the combined GDP of NATO members.

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