Name: Investment Manager flags potential liquidity risks for 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-07T03:37:24.234Z
Duration: 5 min 9 s
Description: Richard Harris from Port Shelter Investment Management noted that there is growing optimism around increased liquidity in the market but warns that investors may also be concerned about rising risks accompanying this. Harris also shared his views on President Donald Trump’s plans to sell Venezuelan oil at market prices.

Richard Harris from Port Shelter Investment Management noted that there is growing optimism around increased liquidity in the market but warns that investors may also be concerned about rising risks accompanying this. Harris also shared his views on President Donald Trump’s plans to sell Venezuelan oil at market prices.

Wall Street

An investment manager has expressed concerns about potential liquidity risks in 2026, despite the current risk-on sentiment in global markets. The manager noted that while equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies are all rising, the simultaneous increase in gold prices suggests investors are hedging against possible future instability. 

The interview also discussed the U.S. government's actions regarding Venezuelan oil assets and the lack of clear policy direction, which has contributed to market uncertainty. The manager emphasized that while liquidity is currently abundant, future risks may arise as debt levels increase and questions remain about how this liquidity will be repaid.

Investment Manager flags potential liquidity risks for 2026

Brand new year. And how are you feeling about the markets. I mean it's risk on. I mean it's it's not just a trade that we're just talking about. I mean South Korean memory chip makers are flying. Crypto is coming back a little bit. Gold silver and copper. How does that make sense that everything goes up. Like how does that make sense that gold is up when everything else is up. Everyone's had a great holiday haven't they. So everyone's really bullish and optimistic. I can't help feeling we've been here before. You know happiness in January and despair in May because things are going up like that. And I'm not surprised gold is still going up because we saw the same thing 2004 2005 2006 when gold moved despite the fact that equity markets were moving. And I think this is kind of thing in the background. It's a hedge where people are saying OK the equity markets are going up. Let's let's stay in the party. But at the same time let's have a bit of a hedge. And it seems to be certainly going from the experience in the double lows that when people get less confident in financial assets they move into gold. And you saw in 2011 gold started to tail off because people have more confidence in financial assets. So if we're looking at the same sort of pattern I'm not surprised we're seeing gold go up at the same time as equities. Yes something is breaking or changing for sure. And I thought the Venezuelan development will do more to the markets. And I don't know what the market is thinking in terms of me looking at its reaction. It's just brushing it off as just another Trump moment. But there are a lot of parts to think about and lines to parse through. It's the Rubio line. It's the the press secretary line and what the President Trump is saying himself. What do you think the thinking is here that U.S. government is going after the stolen oil assets from Venezuela. Well steal the stolen oil assets. I mean the problem is there's no real joined up writing. And it's quite clear that Rubio press secretaries are just taking the Trump line even if they don't really know where the Trump line is. I mean Rubio the other day when he was asked why the Honduras president was released on pretty well the same charges as Maduro. He said well I'm not involved in the pardon. That was the president's decision. There seems to be no real linkage between those people and what Trump's doing. And there seems to be no real plan of where we go forward. We've just had the tweet saying that America is going to take on up to 50 million barrels from Venezuela. Now is that free. Is that a gift. Do they have to pay for it. They're selling it at market rates. But that has to be refined. And Venezuelan oil is quite difficult to refine. There are all sorts of stuff coming out here that every tweet that comes out you can think of five reasons why it's not going to work. So I guess we really just have to see how things pan out because we can't rely on Trump tweets totally. Some of them we can but not totally. And we certainly can't rely on what any of his aides are saying because they had they don't know. They don't know. And well one thing for sure a market actually can count on his tweets or truth social posts when he says it's a good time to buy stocks or something or something that he talks about in terms of like ramping up the U.S. stock markets. Going through your notes I think you make a lot of great points. But one thing that I want to push back against is the bit about liquidity running out. I feel like that's not the case. The Trump administration facing the midterm elections perhaps it's going to be excess liquidity that we're going to be dealing with. Sure there is really the hesitation to call it a Q.E. but there is some kind of plumbing happening. Q.T. has come to an end. You see liquidity running out. Why do you say that. Well there's also a possibility of liquidity being increased. For instance if the U.S. started to go towards recession interest rates are going to come down. We may see Q.E. again. So yeah there's always a possibility that it may increase. What I was really focusing on though is at the moment we have a real market buzz. The narrative is about liquidity. Liquidity is going up. Now is that narrative going to end. Are people going to say well a lot of the liquidity is circular in the investment business. Who's going to succeed. So I think it's more of a behavioral issue where the market sort of saying yeah we love the liquidity narrative at the moment. But looking further on they may well be saying well OK there's a lot of liquidity there but also a lot of risks and also a lot of issues. And how is this money going to be paid back. Because it's OK to shove money into the market. But as we all know with debt sooner or later somebody is going to come knocking on your door wanting it back. And that is going to be I think one of the issues looking further down the road.

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