The choice of a successor to the Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of Tibetan Buddhists, is a matter of deep interest not only for followers of his religion, but also China, India, and the United States, for strategic reasons.

The succession of the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhists, is a matter of significant religious and political interest. Traditionally, the Dalai Lama is identified as the reincarnation of his predecessor through a process involving visions and the recognition of belongings, a method followed when the current Dalai Lama was chosen as a child.

With the Dalai Lama's advancing age, he has stated that a non-profit he founded will have sole authority to recognize his future reincarnation, explicitly rejecting any candidate selected by the Chinese government. China maintains it has the right to approve the successor, while India and the United States have expressed their own positions, with the US opposing Chinese involvement. The Dalai Lama's institute, the Garden Fudrong Institute, and senior Tibetan Buddhist lamas will oversee the process, with no role for the Chinese government. However, the Dalai Lama has suggested he may live for many more years, potentially delaying the succession.

How will the Dalai Lama's successor be chosen?

In the Himalayan hill town of Dharmasala in northern India, Tibetans in exile are preparing to celebrate the 90th birthday of the Dalai Lama. The 14th reincarnation of Tibet's spiritual leader is one of the world's most influential figures and a Nobel Peace Laureate. But with his advancing age, the question of succession looms large and will be politically charged, far beyond the Tibetan community. So how was the current Dalai Lama chosen? Tibetan Buddhists believe that enlightened monks are reborn to continue their spiritual legacy. The 14th Dalai Lama was recognized as a reincarnation when he was just two years old. A search party sent by the Tibetan government made the decision based on several signs, the Dalai Lama's website says, including a vision and the toddler identifying belongings of the previous Dalai Lama. In 1959, the Dalai Lama fled into exile in India with thousands of other Tibetans after a failed uprising against Chinese rule. They took control of Tibet in 1950. He has since advocated for a non-violent middle way to seek autonomy and religious freedom for Tibetan people. The spiritual leader had promised to share more details about his succession around the time of his 90th birthday. A few days ahead of his celebration, via video link at a religious conference, the Dalai Lama said that a non-profit he founded in 2015 has sole authority to recognize his future reincarnation. Later in the day, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson responded, saying China practices a policy of freedom of religious belief and has the right to approve the Dalai Lama's successor as a legacy from imperial times. Earlier this year, the Dalai Lama said that his successor would be born in the, quote, free world, which he described as outside China. He has also said previously that his successor might be a girl, or that there might be no successor at all, although he has now confirmed that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. Crucially, though, he has urged his followers to reject anyone chosen by Beijing. But why is the world watching? Beijing said in March that the Dalai Lama was a political exile, who had, quote, no right to represent the Tibetan people at all. China has said it's open to discussing his future if he recognizes that Tibet and Taiwan are inalienable parts of China, a proposal the Tibetan government-in-exile has rejected. Many Tibetans suspect any Chinese role in the selection as being a ploy to exert influence on the community. India is keeping a close eye, too, as the Dalai Lama has said he could reincarnate in the country, which is estimated to be home to more than 100,000 Tibetan Buddhists. Many Indians revere him, and international relations experts say his presence in India offers New Delhi some leverage with rival China. Meanwhile, the United States has said it would not allow China to choose the next Dalai Lama, and has committed to advancing the human rights of Tibetans. The non-profit the Dalai Lama has put in place will make the choice for Tibetan Buddhists. Thupten Noodoop, Tibet's chief state oracle, will be involved in finding the new incarnation. The reincarnation process of His Holiness will be mainly carried out by the Garden Fudrong Institute, His Holiness' Institute, and the High Lamas of the four Tibetan schools. They will mainly hold the discussions and decide on the reincarnation of His Holiness. The Chinese government has no right and role in the process. However, the Dalai Lama told Reuters that he could live to 110. If that proves true, the question of succession may not be so urgent after all.

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