AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network to discuss the high risk of tropical development this weekend.

East Coast of the United States

Meteorologists from AccuWeather have increased their confidence in the likelihood of tropical development off the southeast coast of the United States. Current satellite data shows a stalled frontal boundary across Florida, with conditions expected to become more favorable for development as pressures lower east of Florida. 

While strong wind shear is currently limiting immediate development, forecasters anticipate gradual organization over the weekend. Water temperatures in the region are above average, supporting the potential for a tropical storm, though hurricane formation is not expected. The main impacts are likely to be heavy rainfall in Florida and rough surf, with possible rip currents along the Carolina coast, depending on the storm's track.

High risk of tropical development this weekend

Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. You know, Alex, we put out a map last week talking about the northern Gulf of America and the southwest Atlantic. We saw this possibility last week and now our confidence that we're going to see homegrown development has increased quite a bit in the last few days. Yeah, this is going to be a classic example, I think, of homegrown development right close to home right along a cold front early in the hurricane season. This is exactly what you expect to see during the months of June or July, and this area right off the southeast coast is the area that we're watching. Earlier in the week we thought maybe it could pop in the eastern Gulf, but now confidence is high that if we're going to get something, it looks like it's going to be off the southeast coast. Now, not much right now. Let's take a look at the satellite. We highlighted the area, Alex. You can see how the frontal boundary has stalled across Florida. Actually, there were more thunderstorms in this area yesterday than what we are seeing currently, but things will start changing in this part of the Atlantic beginning late Friday night. Yeah, I don't think we're going to be seeing a lot over the next 24 to 36 hours, but tomorrow night I think pressures are going to start to lower east of Florida and you're going to start to get that development. But like you say, Bernie, you always say this, the low has to sit over that area for about 48 hours or so. So nothing immediate, but we're definitely going to have to watch things over the weekend for some gradual development. Of course, water temperatures here, Alex, really never a problem. I mean, for development we need about 78. These seem to be running a tick or two above the historical average. Yeah, that's right, and especially over the Gulf Stream. That's that really warm water current that runs east of Florida and up through the Carolinas. That is, I think, where this low is going to try to form. A lot of times these areas of low pressure, they kind of look for the warmest ocean waters to kind of form, and I think the low might try to consolidate over that Gulf Stream water, and that's what would give it that energy. Always with homegrown development, you're always, always dealing with wind shear, winds that are strong in the middle upper part of the atmosphere. And you can see the area right now, Alex, north of the Bahamas in that dark purple. We do have quite a bit of wind shear, and that's a limiting factor over the next 24 hours. Yeah, it certainly is, and this is why we don't expect much to go on here over the next 36 hours or so. The wind shear essentially will kind of knock over those thunderstorms and really prevent any development. But even after things really start to come together, the wind shear is going to be moderate, I think, in that area, which is going to prevent any explosive development. We don't expect this to become a hurricane or anything like that, but a tropical storm is certainly on the table. There will be some downpours. Certainly there's already going to be downpours this weekend in Florida. The real question is, is the structure of the storm. Do we see a lot of showers and thunderstorms on the northwestern side, in which case then we'd be worried about some locally heavy rain along the Carolina coast. That's a little up for debate, but certainly as this organizes, Alex, we're going to have some problems here with some rough surf. But again, this is a graphic we've had quite a long time. We've been talking about it, Alex. But again, when you look at what this could do to the coastal Carolinas, just on the form of some rough surf, that is going to be a concern this weekend. Yeah, it certainly is. Confidence is high for Florida getting a lot of rain. And then when we look up into the Carolinas, that's going to depend on the exact track of what forms here. It could just get buried right into like South Carolina, you know, early in the weekend, or it could meander around the coast. If it meanders just offshore, that can create a larger swath of rain along the Carolina coast there. But beach problems, I think there's going to be a rip current risk as well. So if anybody's going out to the beaches, just be careful out there, because it looks like there's going to be some high surf either way. The rest of the Atlantic remains quiet. Yeah, it certainly does. A lot of wind shear and a lot of dry air. Nothing unusual. This is what we expect at the beginning of July. But I can tell you that the rest of the Atlantic looks quiet. So the only threat right now is the thing off the southeast coast. All right, Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva. Alex, thanks for joining us here on Accuweather Early.

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