Global shipping, moving over 80% of the world’s merchandise trade, is entering a period of fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty, according to The Review of Maritime Transport 2025.

Global shipping is experiencing increased fragility as trade volumes are projected to grow only marginally. Geopolitical tensions have led to long-distance rerouting of vessels, resulting in a record rise in tonne miles and higher transport costs. New tariffs and restrictions are further disrupting established trade flows, causing freight rates to become more volatile and delays to become commonplace.

These challenges are reshaping maritime trade geography, with ports worldwide, including those in Africa, affected by the changes. The outlook for the coming year is marked by heightened uncertainty and volatility, as global shipping continues to move over 80 percent of the world's merchandise trade amid these ongoing disruptions.

Global shipping faces fragility as trade, political tensions rise

After firm growth last year, sea-borne trade is expected to stall in 2025, with volumes barely rising half a percentage point. Long-distance rerouting caused by geopolitical tensions kept ships busier last year, with a record of nearly 6 percent growth in tonne miles. We know the global environment has become more complex. We know geopolitical tensions are affecting the Red Sea and have forced costly reroutings around the Cape of Good Hope. Risks remain, for example in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade. New tariffs are disrupting established trade flows. Freight rates are high and volatile increasingly. And delay and disruption are becoming the norm. And these challenges drive up costs. Political tensions, new tariffs, shifting trading patterns and reconfigured shipping lanes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade. Sea-borne trade has grown in 2024 by 2.2 percent. At the same time, reroutings have meant longer shipping routes, with tonne miles increasing about 6 percent. This in turn has led to higher transport costs, delays and greenhouse gas emissions. And a reshuffling of shipping networks, affecting ports, including in Africa. For 2025, the big picture is heightened uncertainty and volatility, with growth forecast to slow to only half a percent. Global shipping is responsible for moving over 80 percent of the world's merchandise trade. But issues like tariffs and restrictions are becoming a new source of tension.

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