AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 1 to discuss the tropics.

Meteorologists are closely monitoring the Atlantic as the hurricane season approaches its peak. While the season typically intensifies from mid-August through September, current conditions in the tropical Atlantic remain generally unfavorable for significant storm development. A stalled front off the southeast coast of the United States is expected to bring rain and gusty winds, but any potential system is likely to move away from land.

A tropical wave, which originated off Africa, is being tracked as it moves north of the Lesser Antilles toward the Bahamas, but dry air and cooler-than-average water temperatures are inhibiting its development. Experts note that the Atlantic is currently experiencing an 'Atlantic Nina' phase, which usually results in weaker tropical waves and reduced hurricane activity in the eastern Atlantic.

Checking in on the tropics

We're getting closer and closer to the heart of the hurricane season, which begins mid to late August through September. We're not there yet, but we're getting closer and closer. Well, thank you to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, because we know it's always the time. We're looking out over those waters. It's one of the reasons we love to be here, but also one of the reasons why it's a little risky at times. It really is. And this is why Bernie doesn't go on vacation after August 15th. Now, for a couple of reasons, we're not allowed to, because it's hurricane season. But I don't typically get near the water after August 15th. July 15th through August 15th is when Bernie goes on vacation. I love talking about myself in the third person. I also like bringing in my good friend and our hurricane lead forecaster, Alex DaSilva. And Alex, a brand new month. But when you take a look at the breeding grounds for August, it's similar to what we see in July, except in the tropical Atlantic, the area where you see development kind of does expand a little bit. Yeah, August is interesting. It's almost a tale of two months. Early in the month, we still are really looking close to home in the Gulf or off the southeast coast. But as you really get into that middle to end part of the month, that's really when we open the door more for those tropical waves that are coming across the Atlantic. So that's really where we start to open that door much further to the east. Unlike July, early July, August, you get less and less dips in the jet stream coming close to getting down in the southeast United States. But we are going to see one. It's on its way southward. That's why we're getting that refreshing air mass coming in to the Midwest and northeast. So this weekend and early next week, this is what it looks like. I have the jet stream drawn on here. I don't think it's deep enough for the Gulf, but you know what? It does stall a boundary off the southeast coast of the U.S. Yeah, we're essentially going to get a stalled front that's going to develop off the southeast coast, and it's going to bring a lot of rain and maybe even some rough surf and maybe even some gusty winds right at the immediate shoreline. But then we have to watch to see if something can develop along that frontal boundary. The timing of that would be August 2nd to the 5th. So that's what we have to watch out for. Nevertheless, it looks like it's going to be moving away from the United States. The Atlantic's still what I call hostile for development, right, Alex? You still have a lot of dry air and pockets of winter, but you can see a tropical wave. We've been tracking that since it came off Africa. Right now, that's north and east of the islands. Yeah, it's really struggling right now coming across there. You can see a little bit of convection along with it, but it's kind of surrounded by all of that yellow and orange color there, indicating a lot of that dusty dry air. Now, as we go throughout the month of August, that will decrease a little bit, but there's still a lot out there right now. While it's unlikely that this system is not going to develop that wave over the next couple of days, you know, we've been talking about this all week. This time of the year, you track things until they dissipate or move over to land. Yeah, we'll have to watch it. It's going to move north of the Lesser Antilles and towards the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. We'll track it as it moves up through there, but I just don't think it's going to be really a favorable environment. It gets a little bit more favorable for development, but there's still going to be some dry air that I think it's going to be really hard for this to develop. But this time of the year, the waters are so warm, we still need to at least keep an eye on it. You know, everybody, I think, is used to the terms El Nino and La Nina, but there's been some recent research about the Atlantic and water temperature anomalies. Yeah, we call this the Atlantic Nina or Nino region. Now, this is the boxed area that we're looking at here. So you're right along the equator, just off the west coast of Africa. And you can look at the water temperatures in this box and they're below average right now. A lot of blue in this box. So right now we are in an Atlantic Nina as we speak right now. And if we take a look at what that would mean for the tropical Atlantic, well, usually you have a little bit more wind shear across the Atlantic. And that jet stream that really brings those tropical waves across the Atlantic from Africa is usually in a more weakened phase. And so the tropical waves that are emerging from Africa are usually a little bit weaker and usually have a little bit of a harder time getting going. So typically we don't see a lot of those big time hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic when we have those cooler waters down near Africa. If those waters warm, however, then the switch flips and then that's more favorable for those more long track big time hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic. Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex De Silva, thanks for joining us here on Accuweather Early.

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