Evan Sohn, Aura Intelligence CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his expectations for the June jobs report and areas of weak job growth.

Washington

Evan Sohn, CEO of Aura Intelligence, stated that while the U.S. labor market continues to outperform many global counterparts, entry-level job opportunities are notably weak. Job postings for entry-level positions have declined by over 30%, and underemployment among recent college graduates remains high, with more than 40% working in roles that do not require a college degree.

Despite these challenges, Sohn pointed to significant growth in mental health care jobs, with a 52% spike in postings during one week in June and 125,000 open roles reported for the month. Health care, particularly mental health, remains a bright spot in an otherwise challenging employment landscape, though low quit rates may slow hiring in these sectors.

Aura: Entry-level jobs will be a weak point in June jobs report

My next guest has, compared to the rest of the world, the U.S. labor market is outperforming, even with all of these uncertainties that rage. Consumer demand, he thinks, is also resilient. Evan Sohn is CEO of global workforce data and analytic company Aura Intelligence. Evan, like 87 questions, I'll try to jam into just a few here. Starting with, and Michael Kantrowicz was on at the top of the show saying he thinks any slowdown we're going to see on the jobs front is not necessarily a recessionary one. It sounds like you might agree with that, that there's almost more of a realignment, you think, that's going on here. Yeah, first of all, thanks for having me back. And I completely agree. Certainly a realignment. You know, job postings for June are up. And as you mentioned, the U.S. is ahead of foreign countries. So that's actually a good sign for the future, not for the immediate. I think what's very troubling for tomorrow will be the entry-level jobs. These things are generally, there's a seasonality to it. And you think about the jobs that are getting created now, these are going to be the entry-level jobs. And those are down really, really substantially. You saw the New York Fed report that the underemployment rate in post-college grads was like over 40%. That's people in a job that they didn't want or a job that didn't require a college degree. And I think that job postings for entry-level jobs are down by over 30% over a period. It's a difficult market. See anyone that you have a friend that's graduating college, this is a difficult market. So if you think about what jobs would get created in June, it would be those entry-level post-college jobs. And that's not really happening. It's kind of a problem. Yeah, go ahead. A real problem. And I don't know if you have the data on it, but I sent you that mental health workers are booming. I did see that. No, and let's pause for a second. So while we're talking about this realignment that AI might be causing with entry-level jobs, and we saw Challenger job cuts and Microsoft jobs, like everywhere you turn, you see signs that that is the case. You said, but it's not all bad news because areas in high demand, well, they're booming. And you said, but it's in mental health care. That's right. So mental health care had, we had one week this in June where we saw a 52% spike in mental health care roles in one week. And that's been really increasing throughout the year. So I think it's target. I think that with public and private sectors, these initiatives for mental health, it's going to be very, very targeted hiring. And by the way, we've seen health care really be one of the growth areas from an industry throughout the last year. Let me just jump in there because one of the major debates in the market right now is whether the kind of stalwarts, the engines of continued monthly job growth, education, health care, and government jobs, whether that is now shutting down or not because of Doge or other factors. So you're saying you think actually health care still remains a bright spot. I think a targeted area of health care, right? It's the mental health workers. And again, that's a big number. There were 125,000 roles in June were open for mental health workers. So when we're looking at, you know, a plus or minus of missing a job creation by 100,000 or 25,000, 30,000, you know, that's a very significant number. The question now is can these organizations hire fast enough? And what you saw in the BLS numbers is that the quit rates are really low, or they're certainly lower, the actual quit rates themselves. They trickled. They were slightly higher than they were the month before. And that's what causes the difficulty. If no one's quitting their job, then it's really difficult to find people to get those jobs.

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