James Nixey, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Chatham House talks to Eleni Giokos about what could happen following Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin, and why the prospect of Russian concessions seems elusive.

Washington

Russian forces have invaded Ukraine from land, air and sea with strikes causing widespread damage. Global leaders have condemned the move and imposed sanctions.

Ukraine Invasion

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains tense, following a recent phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. James Nixey, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, discusses the implications of the call. Despite Ukraine's rejection of Russian territorial claims, Trump has not advocated for Russian concessions, a stance often seen as realistic given Russia's historic aversion to compromise.

Ukrainian President Zelensky recently stated that Ukraine will not recognize Russian-occupied territories as Russian. This position reflects a broader stance of resistance, though it also acknowledges difficulties in negotiations where both sides have distinct red lines. For Ukraine, concessions made regarding occupied territories highlight complexities around potential ceasefire terms, especially regarding territory held since 2014.

Meanwhile, a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine is on the agenda, positioned as a reciprocal gesture. Although Russians portray it as an act of goodwill, such swaps are customary in current hostilities. This process, often involving exchanged prisoners, highlights ongoing humanitarian concerns, differentiation in treatment standards, and efforts for diplomatic progress amidst the military engagement.



Assessing Russia’s war on Ukraine after Trump’s phone call with Putin

Now, what kind of pressure do you think is President Trump going to be giving President Putin, given that, you know, he basically rejected the ceasefire agreement that was put on the table? Yeah, if Trump puts Putin under any kind of pressure, that will be something of a first. He has not been known to express any desire to have the Russians concede any particular points or make any concessions, which is just as well, by the way, because the Russians don't make concessions and they don't do compromise. So in that particular respect, Trump is playing it, I suppose, correctly, because he knows that he wouldn't get any concessions from a Russian side if he asked for them. So by not asking for them, he can say he has achieved also that which he wants. Yeah, a little earlier today, we heard from President Zelensky and he was at a press conference with Finland's president, and he basically said that Ukraine is not going to recognize any territory that's currently held by Russia as Russian. And he also conceded to the fact that it's going to be one of the difficult points of negotiation. You know, what do you what do you make of the messaging from President Zelensky here? Because I think both sides are coming in with red lines. And at some point, someone's going to have to make big concessions to make this work. Yeah, that's right. But the concessions have already been made by the Ukrainians in the sense that they have conceded that when a ceasefire comes, an armistice comes, whatever you want to call it, then Ukraine will not hold all of its legally recognized territory that it held before 2022 or even 2014, in fact. It's just a question of the final status of these lands. And of course, there is no way that Ukrainians would or could or should recognize that these lands are now Russia's and have been have been won by Russia as a result of muscularity and military force. So these these concessions have actually already been made by the Ukrainians, but there have been none made by by the Russians. And of course, what the Russians really want is effectively the demilitarization of Ukraine and the stop stopping of arms shipments and intelligence sharing to Ukraine. And that that if the Russians get that, then I think most of their demands will have been met. Yeah, there's also a prisoner swap, which we are expecting today, and I think the way that Russia is positioning this is a gesture of goodwill. But frankly, this has been in the works for quite some time now. How significant is the prisoner swap today? Yeah, you're absolutely right. These prison swaps are a frequent occurrence, in fact, as they should be. Generally speaking, in the West, we like to do these things. It behoves us well to exchange their prisoners who have presumably committed war crimes of some sort or maybe taken during the act of war in exchange for in exchange for people who are perhaps not not necessarily competence, people who have been arrested inside Russia or Ukrainian prisoners of war as well, who have, it must be said, been subject to various kinds of torture and abuse. That is not true for Russian prisoners on the Ukrainian side. So it's a regular occurrence, as it should be, and it happens as a matter of course during the war.

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Ukraine Invasion