There is a slight increase in the chance of development for an area of interest near Florida. There is still potential for it to strengthen into a tropical or subtropical depression this weekend or early next week.

Florida

Weather forecasts indicate a 40% chance of tropical or subtropical development for a low-pressure area near Florida. The system's formation is uncertain, as its development depends on whether the center of circulation remains over water or moves over land, which would hinder its strengthening.

Regardless of its development into a tropical depression or a named storm, the system is expected to bring rain to Florida. The next name on the list for Atlantic storms is Chantal, following Andrea and Barry, with July being a typical period for such developments in the region.

Area to watch near Florida now up to 40% chance of development

Thursday and Friday in the southeast are actually looking really, really nice. It's Florida that is going to stay unsettled, because as this boundary pushes through and lingers in this area, you can get low pressures to develop, and the reason being is, this is a low pressure. It's just extended out, all right? It's just kind of like an elongated low pressure, if you will, so it could tighten up, and we could potentially get tropical depression, maybe a subtropical depression from this, but there's still a lot of time, and there's a lot of questions around this. And one of the questions is, where exactly does that spin start? If it starts over land, it makes it a lot harder for these systems to turn into anything. Now, a 40% chance of development. If we see it right now, the models are showing off the southeast coast, though the GFS wants to bring the energy in a little bit sooner, so I'll show you that. But notice the euro has it a little bit higher, but see how it's kind of straddling over into Florida? So if this thing has, you know, half itself in the ocean and half itself in Florida, it could make for difficulty for this to become a tropical depression. If it's all over this warm water, then we could certainly more easily see a tropical depression. Now, regardless if this is a TD, if this is a named system, it's going to mean rain for Florida. Chantal is the next name on our list. Yes, we've already had Andrea and Barry, and that is an area where we do see development, typically in July.

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